UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls to ease in 2023 Yields have continued to surprise on the upside, with the all-property equivalent yield rising by 106bps in the three months to December. That matches the worst months of the GFC, and even though... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update REIT pricing points to further fall in capital values Movements in REIT pricing provide a good indication of where property capital values are heading. And the latest data are consistent with our expectation that all-property values will see a peak-to... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property faces a tough year After a stellar first six months, rising interest rates and a slowing economy brought commercial property returns crashing down in the second half of 2022. All-property total returns are therefore set... 10th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern lead to narrow We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of... 29th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Atlanta, Dallas top the rankings; NYC, SF lose out Consistent with our national office story, we expect a few years of insipid rent growth and returns for most US office markets. Expensive coastal metros will continue to see weak demand as high rates... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Surge in yields has further to run While we had expected the rise in risk-free rates and upcoming recession to boost yields, the speed at which they have increased has been surprising. All-property equivalent yields rose by a total of... 20th December 2022 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls set to accelerate The sharp rise in Treasury yields this year has finally begun to feed through to the property data. Q3 investment activity fell by more than 20% on both a q/q and y/y basis, with loan originations... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona prime offices to underperform Madrid Spanish office rental values are expected to be harder hit than the euro-zone average as the looming recession weighs on occupier demand and higher interest rates push up yields. However, at a market... 9th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial set to underperform Industrial demand is relatively well-placed to weather the upcoming recession. Vacancy is low going into the downturn and the gradual shift to online shopping will continue. It should therefore be the... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Total returns see worst month since Brexit vote The rise in interest rates and upcoming recession are leading to a rapid turnaround in commercial property performance. Rental growth is starting to ease, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such... 21st October 2022 · 9 mins read
Event US Real Estate Drop-In: What recession will mean for real estate returns 1667318400 With a US recession looming, Kiran Raichura and Andrew Burrell held a briefing on the impact of weaker growth on commercial real estate returns and answering your questions.
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices begin to fall A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Larger fall in euro-zone capital values on the cards Recent revisions to our euro-zone interest rate and bond yield view suggest there is upside risk to our forecasts for prime commercial property yields. With the deteriorating economic outlook also set... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property capital values set to fall by 15% Looser-than-expected fiscal policy following the mini-Budget means we now expect Bank Rate and gilt yields to be higher. All else equal, that would push the spread between the 10-year yield and all... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Dallas offices set to lead the pack for rents and returns The overriding story this quarter is that although weak demand and steady inventory growth in the next couple of years will push up vacancy in many metros, we still see asking rents growing solidly as... 23rd September 2022 · 14 mins read