US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) All-property values are down by 10% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we think there is still another 15% to come by the end of 2024. Much of that price fall will be driven by a rise in cap rates in... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns underpinned by income After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 21st August 2023 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our revised yield model suggests the peak is close Property yields have risen less sharply this year, but there remains considerable uncertainty about where they will peak. We returned to our yield model for guidance and, while a re-specified equation... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we still expect 15% falls in industrial and apartment values Despite capital value falls of 7% and 9% to-date for industrial and apartments respectively, we are forecasting around 15% further value declines as cap rates rise. But the falls in appraisal-based... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices drop-in: Answers to client questions Last week, we held a Drop-In on the future of office property. This Update provides answers for a variety of questions from a UK perspective that emerged from the discussion. 2nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 23) Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 20th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Uneasy outlook for global commercial property We have made only minor changes to our latest global forecasts which still imply that property will underperform other assets in the short to medium term. Further out, real estate returns are set to... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Clear split between weak west and strong south The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist... 11th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE yields set to rise further In contrast to the deceleration across the rest of Europe, the rise in CEE yields in Q1 was bigger than in Q4, driven predominantly by the industrial sector. As the yield gap with the euro-zone is... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Dogged inflation means more yield rises to come Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 30th May 2023 · 24 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Yield rises show no sign of easing In contrast to the rest of Europe, CEE yields not only rose, but increased more sharply in Q1 than the previous quarter. Strong rental growth cushioned the blow to all-property capital values, but... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Weak Q1, but bigger price falls to come in Q2 The economy has been relatively resilient so far, but with the banking turmoil set to weigh on activity, we continue to expect a recession this year. Slower growth has already translated to softer... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is industrial still dangerously overvalued? Substantial yield compression over the past two years meant that by the middle of 2022 industrial had become the most overvalued sector since our measure began in 1992. That helps explains the... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Total returns stabilise, but too soon to call bottom All-property yields have stabilised since the start of the year and alongside continued rental growth, that means total returns were more-or-less flat during Q1. But, while the worst is over, the... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Takeaways from our housing roundtables Alongside the publication of our Q2 UK Housing Outlook this week, we held a series of roundtable meetings for clients in London. Here we sum up our thoughts on three key questions which recurred... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Early yield correction gives retail an advantage A fall in consumption this year will weigh on the retail sector, but an earlier correction in yields and rents mean it is less vulnerable to the recession. Indeed, it was the only sector to see a fall... 24th April 2023 · 3 mins read
