Europe Commercial Property Update Bond market sell-off a reminder of real estate fragilities The scale of the rise in bond yields over recent weeks has provoked worries about the impact on real estate. The sell-off presents an upside risk to our yield outlook, but we think falling inflation... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fair value estimates confirm scope for yield falls Fair value calculations combine valuation analysis with a forward-looking view of rents. As such, these estimates reinforce our existing view that there is scope for declines in euro-zone yields... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for euro-zone yields? The following is a presentation that our Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell gave to the District Conference in Barcelona on 21st September, 2023. 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do yield spreads tell us about the outlook? Over the last year or so, spreads over sovereign yields have narrowed to their lowest since the euro-zone debt crisis. But while these are expected to widen again over the next year, mostly thanks to... 13th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone crash now expected to match GFC slump While the macro backdrop was broadly unchanged, rents were stronger and yields were higher than expected in Q2, forcing us to re-examine our 2023 real estate view. As a result, we have edged down our... 31st August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) All-property values are down by 10% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we think there is still another 15% to come by the end of 2024. Much of that price fall will be driven by a rise in cap rates in... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns underpinned by income After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 21st August 2023 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our revised yield model suggests the peak is close Property yields have risen less sharply this year, but there remains considerable uncertainty about where they will peak. We returned to our yield model for guidance and, while a re-specified equation... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we still expect 15% falls in industrial and apartment values Despite capital value falls of 7% and 9% to-date for industrial and apartments respectively, we are forecasting around 15% further value declines as cap rates rise. But the falls in appraisal-based... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices drop-in: Answers to client questions Last week, we held a Drop-In on the future of office property. This Update provides answers for a variety of questions from a UK perspective that emerged from the discussion. 2nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 23) Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 20th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Uneasy outlook for global commercial property We have made only minor changes to our latest global forecasts which still imply that property will underperform other assets in the short to medium term. Further out, real estate returns are set to... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Clear split between weak west and strong south The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist... 11th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE yields set to rise further In contrast to the deceleration across the rest of Europe, the rise in CEE yields in Q1 was bigger than in Q4, driven predominantly by the industrial sector. As the yield gap with the euro-zone is... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Dogged inflation means more yield rises to come Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 30th May 2023 · 24 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Yield rises show no sign of easing In contrast to the rest of Europe, CEE yields not only rose, but increased more sharply in Q1 than the previous quarter. Strong rental growth cushioned the blow to all-property capital values, but... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
