US Commercial Property Update 2024 rate cuts will provide no respite to price corrections Even though we expect the Fed to go into cutting mode within the next six months and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4% in 2024, we don’t expect this to provide any respite for real estate... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher r* means more pain for property Our recent r* work reinforces the view that property yields will stay relatively high longer term. That implies global returns in low single digits over the next decade or so, well below pre-pandemic... 27th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Decline in risk-free rates to stabilize returns Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will peak by the end of 2023. That will help stabilize capital values, but, given historically narrow yield... 24th November 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to bottom out, but activity will remain soft Surprisingly resilient demand, high inflation, and limited supply mean a severe drop in house prices will be avoided. With the peak in mortgage rates now behind us and the labour market in good shape... 21st November 2023 · 17 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Milan office yield looks unsustainable Milan prime office yields appear very low both compared to other alternative assets and other euro-zone countries. By any standards, office property there looks highly overvalued. But looking ahead... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The slowdown in rent growth so far this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop... 16th November 2023 · 0 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Another downgrade to the consensus, but still too sanguine Our forecasts for commercial real estate values remain well below consensus, even after the latest downgrade. While our sector rankings are consistent with the consensus, we are predicting a more... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5% On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Early Q3 data confirm EZ crash as worst on record The preliminary data for Q3 were sobering, with euro-zone prime yields moving up significantly more than expected. This confirms the 2022-23 real estate contraction as the worst on record and, with... 27th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook West coast markets set to feel the greatest pain We expect demand to be weakest in the six major markets, but new supply is also set to be low in those markets. Elsewhere, we think southern metros will continue to see stronger absorption, though... 18th October 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Manufacturing a potential thorn in the side for industrial The UK manufacturing sector has faltered in recent months, as rising interest rates and slowing economies in many parts of the world have cut global demand. That spells trouble for manufacturing... 10th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bond market sell-off a reminder of real estate fragilities The scale of the rise in bond yields over recent weeks has provoked worries about the impact on real estate. The sell-off presents an upside risk to our yield outlook, but we think falling inflation... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fair value estimates confirm scope for yield falls Fair value calculations combine valuation analysis with a forward-looking view of rents. As such, these estimates reinforce our existing view that there is scope for declines in euro-zone yields... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for euro-zone yields? The following is a presentation that our Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell gave to the District Conference in Barcelona on 21st September, 2023. 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do yield spreads tell us about the outlook? Over the last year or so, spreads over sovereign yields have narrowed to their lowest since the euro-zone debt crisis. But while these are expected to widen again over the next year, mostly thanks to... 13th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone crash now expected to match GFC slump While the macro backdrop was broadly unchanged, rents were stronger and yields were higher than expected in Q2, forcing us to re-examine our 2023 real estate view. As a result, we have edged down our... 31st August 2023 · 3 mins read
