UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 24)

A combination of a further rise in property yields and fall in alternative asset yields drove an improvement in property valuations in Q1. The more recent rise in risk-free rates implies that...

10th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2

Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached...

21st March 2024 · 31 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Peak in yields is near, but little scope for compression

Improved valuations suggest that the price correction in prime property is almost done. However, with little scope for bond yields in continental Europe to fall from here and property-to-bond yield...

13th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024)

All-property valuations saw the largest quarterly increase in over a decade in Q4, as property yields rose across all sectors and the 10-year Treasury yield saw its sharpest quarterly decline since Q1...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

A recovery, but not much of one

With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any...

23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024)

Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The property correction slowed slightly at the end of last year, but we think the fall in capital...

23rd February 2024 · 0 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Direct market values to fall despite signals from REITs

Typically, US REIT price indices have been a good indicator of the growth path for capital values in the direct market. That said, even though REIT prices rebounded in Q4 2023, we don’t expect the...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Residential yields have further to rise

The long boom in residential investment has been severely dented by soaring interest rates. Solid fundamentals mean investor interest will remain strong, but it is unlikely residential yields have...

24th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2024

Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector...

9th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Our key calls for 2024

Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for...

5th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Reviewing our 2023 key calls

In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this...

4th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

A look back on our key calls for 2023

While SVB’s collapse in March and sharper rises in interest rates led to larger-than-expected falls in commercial real estate (CRE) values, our expectations for sector and regional winners were...

3rd January 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Drop-In: 2024 US CRE Outlook – Another year of double-digit value falls

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We think more pain is in store for US commercial real estate as weak economic growth and high interest rates continue to take their toll.

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Too early to call the bottom, with offices set for more pain

A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests...

8th December 2023 · 35 mins read