US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024) All-property valuations saw the largest quarterly increase in over a decade in Q4, as property yields rose across all sectors and the 10-year Treasury yield saw its sharpest quarterly decline since Q1... 26th February 2024 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A recovery, but not much of one With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any... 23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The property correction slowed slightly at the end of last year, but we think the fall in capital... 23rd February 2024 · 0 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Direct market values to fall despite signals from REITs Typically, US REIT price indices have been a good indicator of the growth path for capital values in the direct market. That said, even though REIT prices rebounded in Q4 2023, we don’t expect the... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Residential yields have further to rise The long boom in residential investment has been severely dented by soaring interest rates. Solid fundamentals mean investor interest will remain strong, but it is unlikely residential yields have... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2024 Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2024 Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2023 key calls In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update A look back on our key calls for 2023 While SVB’s collapse in March and sharper rises in interest rates led to larger-than-expected falls in commercial real estate (CRE) values, our expectations for sector and regional winners were... 3rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: 2024 US CRE Outlook – Another year of double-digit value falls 1704904200 We think more pain is in store for US commercial real estate as weak economic growth and high interest rates continue to take their toll.
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Too early to call the bottom, with offices set for more pain A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests... 8th December 2023 · 35 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024 rate cuts will provide no respite to price corrections Even though we expect the Fed to go into cutting mode within the next six months and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4% in 2024, we don’t expect this to provide any respite for real estate... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher r* means more pain for property Our recent r* work reinforces the view that property yields will stay relatively high longer term. That implies global returns in low single digits over the next decade or so, well below pre-pandemic... 27th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Decline in risk-free rates to stabilize returns Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will peak by the end of 2023. That will help stabilize capital values, but, given historically narrow yield... 24th November 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to bottom out, but activity will remain soft Surprisingly resilient demand, high inflation, and limited supply mean a severe drop in house prices will be avoided. With the peak in mortgage rates now behind us and the labour market in good shape... 21st November 2023 · 17 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Milan office yield looks unsustainable Milan prime office yields appear very low both compared to other alternative assets and other euro-zone countries. By any standards, office property there looks highly overvalued. But looking ahead... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read