US Commercial Property Update

What could a Trump win mean for commercial real estate?

On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway...

7th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024)

All-property values have stabilised in the UK but we expect further falls elsewhere, especially in the US. Combined with a weaker office outlook, the US is set to underperform over the next couple of...

2nd October 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Industrial to outperform as muted recovery gets underway

After two disappointing years, commercial property values have stabilised. However, the recovery is set to be weak. We think yield falls in the coming years will be small compared to previous...

23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Focus

Regional divide in euro-zone office yield outlook

Taking stock of euro-zone office yields after their recent stabilisation reveals a convergence across the region, with spreads between the northern markets and the historically higher-risk southern...

17th September 2024 · 15 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields

Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast...

27th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024)

A stabilisation of property yields and solid rent growth mean that euro-zone all-property values increased in Q2 for the first time in two years. However, market sentiment remains very weak and...

23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024)

Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

UK looking increasingly attractive compared to France

Newfound political stability in the UK contrasts with the now more uncertain political backdrop in France. A better relative outlook for economic growth and risk-free rates had already led to a...

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack

The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a sharper hit to office demand is set to weigh on US property returns over the next couple of years. Overall, the UK is set to outperform over...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why are residential yields so low?

Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for...

25th June 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why we think yield compression will be limited

With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Political uncertainty to hit French property values

Investor concerns about the upcoming snap legislative elections have pushed up French government bond yields and we think they will rise further over the rest of the year. This has worsened the...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany

While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom.

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read