US Commercial Property Update

Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed

It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024)

The sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield in Q3 meant marked improvement in our property valuation scores. That left all-property looking “fairly valued” for the first time since the end of 2021...

11th November 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 24)

Valuations improved in Q3 as alternative asset yields fell back. But since then, the combined impact of the Budget and US election has more than reversed the decline in the 10-year gilt yield seen...

7th November 2024 · 0 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

‘Extend and pretend’ still ongoing for some banks

The NCREIF Q3 index posted a positive return for the first time in two years, with only offices recording a negative outturn. But with firmer evidence that poorly capitalized banks have been less...

28th October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Are we underestimating the capital value recovery?

The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting...

22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024)

All-property values have stabilised in the UK but we expect further falls elsewhere, especially in the US. Combined with a weaker office outlook, the US is set to underperform over the next couple of...

2nd October 2024 · 0 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields

Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast...

27th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024)

Commercial property valuations worsened slightly in Q2 across all sectors as bond yields rose while property yields held steady. However, the decline in government bond yields so far in Q3 means...

20th August 2024 · 0 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024)

Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 24)

A rise in alternative asset yields combined with stable property yields meant valuations failed to improve in Q2. But with risk-free rates now falling back and property yields set to be flat, property...

7th August 2024 · 0 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Elevated insurance premiums continue to hit valuations

The rise in severe weather events over the last five years has left property insurers scrambling to price-in physical risks, causing premium growth to reach a 20-year high. While we think the worst is...

31st July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Q2 data show appraisers still lagging reality

A second consecutive reduction in the size of value falls – just 1.4% q/q – in the Q2 NCREIF NPI appears to point to the price correction being all but over. However, with evidence of distress growing...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack

The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a sharper hit to office demand is set to weigh on US property returns over the next couple of years. Overall, the UK is set to outperform over...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read