UK Housing Market Update Takeaways from our housing roundtables Alongside the publication of our Q2 UK Housing Outlook this week, we held a series of roundtable meetings for clients in London. Here we sum up our thoughts on three key questions which recurred... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Partway through the correction While house price declines have slowed and economic activity has proven more resilient than expected over the three months since our last Outlook, we are sticking to our forecast that house prices... 26th April 2023 · 23 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Affordability shapes London performance The Land Registry report that London house price growth slowed to 3.2% y/y in January and more timely data based on mortgage approvals show a 2.2% y/y fall in prices in Q1. The detail suggests that... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) Single-family housing starts continued their weak start to the year in February with a marginal month-on-month increase. While forward looking indicators appear to have turned a corner, homebuilders... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial completions set to fall back from 2024 We expect industrial completions to exceed 3.5% of inventory this year, despite the first quarterly drop in space under construction in Q4 for over two years. But new starts are already slowing and... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial pipeline not a major risk A record amount of industrial space is currently under construction, which looks poorly timed given the upcoming recession. However, the sector is entering the downturn in a strong position with very... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Feb.) The headline CIPS construction index rebounded back into expansionary territory in February and the forward-looking indicators also showed further improvement. Commercial developers may be taking... 6th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Single-family housing starts dropped back in January and the permits data add weight to our view that more weakness is to come. We think that starts will edge lower in the coming months, before an... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Slow recovery in sales and further falls in prices Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past... 10th February 2023 · 18 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Pipelines will weigh on Austin, NYC and Seattle offices We expect a further slowing in office completions over the next few years as a combination of factors weigh on the profitability of new projects. But our latest review of the metro-level completion... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of a trough in housing demand There are growing signs that housing market activity may be close to a trough. The decline in mortgage rates over the past couple of months has led to a small improvement in affordability and a rise... 12th January 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update BTL investors face severe financial squeeze The record-low yields on rental properties and fall in house prices we forecast imply poor returns for Buy-to-Let landlords over the next few years. Moreover, the jump in mortgage rates means a... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family starts fell to 855,000 annualised in October which was much stronger than what was implied by the low level of homebuilder confidence. We expect further declines in new home sales to... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Oct.) As was the case last month, an improvement in delivery times and subcontractor availability drove a surprise rise on the headline construction PMI in October. But a slowing economy and higher... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q3) The latest RICS Construction Survey showed a rise in workloads in Q3, although the gain was small. Looking ahead, a slowing economy and higher financing costs will soon lead to a cut in activity... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Spike in mortgage rates to trigger price correction The jump in market interest rates following the ill-advised “mini” budget has forced quoted mortgage rates up to over 5%, a level not seen since 2009. That will turn the slowdown in demand already... 31st October 2022 · 25 mins read
