UK Commercial Property Update

All signs point to capital value recovery

Surveys of banks, developers and surveyors all point to a recovery in capital values over the next few months. As does the behaviour of investors. The strength of that recovery is more uncertain, with...

16th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Miami apartment market to feel the heat over 2025-28

Apartment markets are turning a corner, and we now expect the sector to outperform over the five year forecast. As new supply drops back from the second half of next year, we expect a mixture of...

1st October 2024 · 7 mins read

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

Houston rockets to the top of the office rankings

Offices are still in for a tough few years, with markets like San Francisco, LA and Seattle likely to come out of the downturn with values down 55% or more from their 2019 peaks. However, there are...

20th September 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 24)

Yields have now peaked in most sectors and capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past standards. Thanks to...

19th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Apartments to top the charts with total returns of 9.5% p.a.

There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to...

12th September 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Sep 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed forecasters are finally coming around to our long-held view that retail will preform relatively well over the next five years. Total returns for all the retail...

6th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Look to beds, sheds and retail for best returns

Commercial property yields and capital values have stabilised in recent months, which has encouraged investors to dip their toes back into the sector. But the recovery is set to be a weak one...

22nd August 2024 · 26 mins read

US Commercial Property Focus

Time to go shopping for retail assets

Retail real estate has faced a tough period, buffeted by the rise of e-commerce, extensive oversupply and the impacts of the pandemic on in-store shopping. But we think the sector is well down the...

20th August 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Markets Outlook

Upside risks to interest rates have increased

We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%...

31st July 2024 · 10 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Q2 data show appraisers still lagging reality

A second consecutive reduction in the size of value falls – just 1.4% q/q – in the Q2 NCREIF NPI appears to point to the price correction being all but over. However, with evidence of distress growing...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Commercial property capital values bottom out

The Q2 RICS commercial survey added to the growing body of evidence that capital values at the all-property level have now bottomed out. But, in line with our forecasts, it also implied that the...

25th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 24)

Yields look to have topped out in most sectors and alongside solid rental growth that means capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with no yield compression in sight the recovery will be...

17th July 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term

The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think...

8th July 2024 · 3 mins read