UK Markets Outlook

Upside risks to interest rates have increased

We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%...

31st July 2024 · 10 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Q2 data show appraisers still lagging reality

A second consecutive reduction in the size of value falls – just 1.4% q/q – in the Q2 NCREIF NPI appears to point to the price correction being all but over. However, with evidence of distress growing...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Commercial property capital values bottom out

The Q2 RICS commercial survey added to the growing body of evidence that capital values at the all-property level have now bottomed out. But, in line with our forecasts, it also implied that the...

25th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 24)

Yields look to have topped out in most sectors and alongside solid rental growth that means capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with no yield compression in sight the recovery will be...

17th July 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term

The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think...

8th July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Houston and Chicago top the apartment rankings

Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted...

2nd July 2024 · 6 mins read

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

Southern metros set to outperform

The office sector faces another two years of value falls, led down by Seattle and San Francisco, where cumulative declines will be around 25%-30%. But our latest forecasts highlight the brighter spots...

20th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Property values on course to fall by more than 25%

The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this summer could be the bottom for transactions, but we still see valuations needing to fall by another 12% from...

11th June 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Will delays to rate cuts hit capital values?

Inflation has been stickier than we had expected and we have therefore pushed back when we think the Bank will start cutting interest rates. That may put a little upward pressure on property yields...

4th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Residential outperforms within a modest recovery

Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total...

30th May 2024 · 27 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (May 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed limited change on the previous forecast round in March. There was a small upward revision to all-property rental growth expectations for 2024, but a downgrade to...

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24)

Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial REITs point the way for direct market prices

The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating...

17th May 2024 · 3 mins read