Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2024 The end of the downturn in the European property market came in 2024 as forecast, though the euro-zone performed better than we had expected. That primarily reflected the strength of the prime office... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our 2024 key calls hold up? 2024 was another difficult year for commercial real estate. Although the sector appears to have fared better than we expected, our key calls were broadly right in terms of direction and winners and... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix to lead the way Our apartment metro forecasts continue to show significant variation between metros, even within regions. For example, while we expect continued strong demand growth in the South – especially in... 23rd December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Expect huge divergence in performance between metros We expect there will continue to be major divergence between the winning and losing metros. We think the major markets and tech-centric western markets will continue to fare poorly thanks to low... 19th December 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 24) The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. That will limit yield compression, and the... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Outlook Total returns to turn positive in 2025, but offices still weigh The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than... 12th December 2024 · 27 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What happens if gilt yields don’t fall back? Our forecast that commercial real estate is set for a modest recovery is dependent on our view that a decline in gilt yields will help stabilise property yields. But if interest rates don’t fall back... 11th December 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov. 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey was broadly unchanged from the previous forecast round. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be 7.7% p.a. over 2024-28, up from 7.6% p.a. previously... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Budget measures to weaken property recovery The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over... 22nd November 2024 · 26 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Silver tsunami to boost senior housing The recent downturn in US commercial property has piqued investor interest in alternatives as they look to diversify. With an aging population, senior housing has a clear long run structural demand... 18th November 2024 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent... 14th November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Has the Budget derailed the CRE recovery? We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ‘Extend and pretend’ still ongoing for some banks The NCREIF Q3 index posted a positive return for the first time in two years, with only offices recording a negative outturn. But with firmer evidence that poorly capitalized banks have been less... 28th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 24) Capital values are now recovering and, notwithstanding a recent rise in interest rates, will continue to do so. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
