Latin America Economics Weekly Strong survey data, Brazil’s tax reform The batch of recently-released survey data for June from Brazil and Mexico suggests that both economies gathered momentum at the end of Q2. But we doubt that this will be sustained and expect growth... 7th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth mostly cyclical One reason for the slump in productivity is that the recent surge in working hours is producing diminishing returns. And we suspect that disruptions caused by the pandemic prevented firms from... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Neutral interest rate may rise to 1% by 2050 As in other advanced economies, Australia’s neutral rate of interest rate will probably edge up a bit over the coming decades. That will result in higher borrowing costs, but Australia’s low public... 23rd May 2023 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Will Thailand’s prospects improve after the election? Provided Thailand’s general election on 14th May does not set off a new round of political unrest and violence, the economy should grow strongly this year. But the long-term outlook is challenging... 8th May 2023 · 13 mins read
US Data Response Intern’l Trade (Mar.), Productivity & Lab. Costs (Q1) A rebound in exports drove a sharp narrowing of the international trade deficit to a four-month low of $64.2bn in March, from $70.6bn in February, but the surveys continue to suggest that exports are... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Malaria vaccine: a potentially big long-term boost The economic impact of the Oxford malaria vaccine, which has now been approved by regulators in Ghana and Nigeria, will depend on the pace and breadth of the rollout and how long immunity lasts for... 20th April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly A more targeted approach to chipmaking support China is retooling its approach to strengthening domestic chipmaking capabilities. But the obstacles the country faces still look insurmountable at the high-end of the sector. Meanwhile, upcoming data... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the National People’s Congress China’s annual legislative session offers reasons for optimism and caution. On the one hand, conservative economic targets and policy settings suggest that officials are prioritising quality over... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Mapping economic reforms for the UK The numerous “plans for growth” that have been announced by the Government, the Opposition, and various commentators in recent months vary in their analytical rigour but all miss one crucial point... 9th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Recession to trigger larger rise in insolvencies than the GFC We think business insolvencies may rise to a record high of around 8,400 per quarter by Q2 2024 and take until at least early 2025 to return to a more “normal” level of just over 4,000 per quarter... 9th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s BNDES: new leader, old problems The newly-appointed head of the Brazilian development bank, BNDES, takes charge today and is likely to be under pressure to increase lending. But the experience from the 2000s suggests that credit... 6th February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Electronics exports are booming India’s exports of electronics remain small, but they have doubled in value over the past couple of years. This is further evidence of a shift into areas of manufacturing that have the potential to... 4th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s behind Brazil’s productivity problem? Brazil’s economy has a deep-seated problem of low productivity growth and it’s hard to see either presidential candidate undertaking the reforms needed to lift investment, strengthen competitive... 28th October 2022 · 17 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the outlier In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
