CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 2 - Will the US retain its economic lead and who might challenge it? The US’s economic leadership is partly related to its sheer size, but its population also works more than other countries and it fares better on productivity. While the US economy faces various... 10th June 2024 · 39 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Executive Summary: The future of global macro and markets leadership We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German manufacturing: from growth driver to drag Germany’s manufacturing sector has been in relative decline since around 2017. We think it will continue to shrink in the coming years and expect productivity growth in the sector to remain relatively... 18th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Productivity malaise may last until end of this decade Weak capital spending is a key reason for Australia’s poor productivity performance. While investment growth has been strong recently, we think it will take until the second half of this decade before... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: Global AI spending will drive rapid growth Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s. 9th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update A close race for fourth place The slump in the yen has resulted in Germany overtaking Japan as the world’s 3rd largest economy at market exchange rates. We expect Japan to overtake Germany yet again in the early 2030s as the yen... 9th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Will Africa unlock its potential? Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall... 21st March 2024 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Why is euro-zone productivity falling? Productivity in the euro-zone has been falling for well over a year. We think this is largely because it was unsustainably high in mid-2022 as many companies struggled to fill vacancies. Since then... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update India to lead EM rise up the global GDP rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs... 11th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Productivity repair will pave the way for rate cuts Australian labour market data released this week showed that hours worked per employee fell sharply in January, continuing a downtrend that began early last year. The deep slump in average hours... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Has a new productivity boom begun? The resurgence in productivity growth is mainly a cyclical response to the tightness of the labour market rather than a sign that the AI revolution is already bearing fruit. Nevertheless, that still... 7th February 2024 · 12 mins read
China Economics Weekly Xi wants faster growth in total factor productivity President Xi this week made clear that faster productivity gains are central to his “high-quality development” agenda. Focusing on raising productivity is a good idea in principle but making it a... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
