Japan Economics Update A close race for fourth place The slump in the yen has resulted in Germany overtaking Japan as the world’s 3rd largest economy at market exchange rates. We expect Japan to overtake Germany yet again in the early 2030s as the yen... 9th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Will Africa unlock its potential? Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall... 21st March 2024 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Why is euro-zone productivity falling? Productivity in the euro-zone has been falling for well over a year. We think this is largely because it was unsustainably high in mid-2022 as many companies struggled to fill vacancies. Since then... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update India to lead EM rise up the global GDP rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs... 11th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Productivity repair will pave the way for rate cuts Australian labour market data released this week showed that hours worked per employee fell sharply in January, continuing a downtrend that began early last year. The deep slump in average hours... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Has a new productivity boom begun? The resurgence in productivity growth is mainly a cyclical response to the tightness of the labour market rather than a sign that the AI revolution is already bearing fruit. Nevertheless, that still... 7th February 2024 · 12 mins read
China Economics Weekly Xi wants faster growth in total factor productivity President Xi this week made clear that faster productivity gains are central to his “high-quality development” agenda. Focusing on raising productivity is a good idea in principle but making it a... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Homebuilding slump isn’t as bad as it seems With new dwelling commencements falling to a 11-year low, some commentators have raised concerns that a lack of housing supply will fuel a resurgence in inflationary pressures. However, we're not... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: will nearshoring live up to the hype? The optimism about Mexico’s economic prospects from the “nearshoring” of supply chains looks overdone in our view. Sectors where Mexico is already well established, such as autos and some electronics... 8th January 2024 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Migration not the sole cause for productivity slump While subdued capital spending has contributed to the slump in productivity, the recent plunge in the capital/labour ratio can only partly be explained by the surge in net migration. 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read