Event

EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications

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Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.

Commodities Weekly

Traditional gold price drivers come back into focus

The ~18% rise in gold prices seen this year has largely defied the traditional logic of demand drivers. Indeed, the surge in gold prices between February and April took place against a backdrop of a...

12th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Taking stock of hurricane season energy risks

While the fossil fuel sector looks set to get off relatively lightly from Hurricane Beryl, the prospect of a busier than usual Atlantic hurricane season this year raises the chances of greater...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (July 2024)

China overcapacity fears coming to industrial metals China’s dominant role in the world of commodities is evolving subtly. This is particularly the case for gold, where increased demand by the PBoC...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Economics, not the White House, the key to US energy

The Dallas Fed survey of oil and gas firms released this week revealed deep dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Donald Trump has made it clear he would provide greater support for the...

28th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election

Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is...

27th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Commodity prices to fall back

We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to...

27th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Commodities Outlook – Where next for energy, gold and industrial metals prices?

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Will China’s economy continue supporting metals demand? What would Donald Trump’s re-election mean for energy markets?

Energy Update

The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand

The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a...

12th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. OPEC+’s decision to roll over its production cuts into Q3 will keep supply...

6th June 2024 · 1 min read

Energy Chart Pack

Energy Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The agreement by OPEC+ to rollover voluntary production cuts into Q3 will keep global oil supply...

5th June 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Labor isn’t wrecking the economy just yet

Labor’s regulatory push can’t be blamed for the recent slump in labour productivity and we aren’t convinced that it will hold back future productivity growth much either. Indeed, we still think that a...

28th May 2024 · 17 mins read

Commodities Weekly

EU gas and carbon price rallies are on borrowed time

The 12% rise in European natural gas prices this week bucked the trend of sharp falls in oil and precious metal prices. Nonetheless, with European gas demand set to stay subdued, and copious supplies...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Your latest commodities questions answered

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook. This Update answers several of the questions that we received.

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (May 2024)

We think that oil prices have further to fall, as we expect OPEC+ to gradually increase output later this year. Prices have recently fallen as worries that the conflict in the Middle East could affect...

8th May 2024 · 1 min read