India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Focus Mapping India’s energy demand and emissions The government’s ambition of developing a globally-competitive manufacturing sector, combined with relatively slow progress on shifting away from using coal for electricity production, means India... 23rd August 2023 · 12 mins read
Long Run Update Ambition collides with reality at the BRICS summit China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How many global risks lie in China's Country Garden The immediate global economic and market fallout from troubles at Chinese property developer Country Garden seems likely to be limited. Foreign exposure to China’s property sector has fallen sharply... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have... 7th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have... 7th August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China’s weakness due to further slide in trend growth We estimate that China’s trend rate of growth has slowed from 5.0% in 2019 to 3.0% now, based on our China Activity Proxy. This is a steeper deceleration than in the years leading up to the emergence... 2nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Pemex will ultimately default The latest Pemex capital injection underscores that Mexico’s President López Obrador is more likely to lean towards providing a sovereign debt guarantee (either implicit or explicit) to deal with the... 1st August 2023 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update China and Japanification: How great is the risk? China is not suffering a balance sheet recession: most private firms are not highly indebted and would borrow if they had more confidence in the economic outlook. But there are other parallels with... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan is not on the cusp of a lasting turnaround Japan bulls have proposed a range of explanations to justify the outperformance of the TOPIX relative to other equity indices over recent months. While there are some signs that firms are enjoying... 24th July 2023 · 18 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus How can Egypt unlock its economic potential? Egyptian policymakers’ commitment (or lack of) to economic orthodoxy continues to provide cause for concern and, while we don’t share the view that sovereign default is a serious risk, the near-term... 20th July 2023 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the early evidence of “friend-shoring” in EMs One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Loadshedding in SA, Kenya protests, Nigeria policy shift Cold weather in South Africa prompted officials to return to Stage 6 loadshedding this week, threatening a fresh blow to the economy. We doubt that concerns about the inflationary impact of power cuts... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
