India Economics Weekly Why the Karnataka election matters for investors The state election in Karnataka was held this week, with results due on Saturday. The state has been on the forefront of the labour reform agenda. But a loss for the incumbent BJP as suggested by exit... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s election: Q&A on an opposition victory There’s a lot of optimism that the opposition will emerge victorious in Turkey’s elections, which would pave the way for a return to orthodox economic policy. Were this to happen, it would set the... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Will Thailand’s prospects improve after the election? Provided Thailand’s general election on 14th May does not set off a new round of political unrest and violence, the economy should grow strongly this year. But the long-term outlook is challenging... 8th May 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian debt sustainability revisited Our central scenario is that Italy’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline gradually in the long-run. However, the government will need to maintain sizeable primary budget surpluses to make that... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Can ageing countries keep their workforces growing? In theory, there is plenty of scope for those countries set to age most rapidly over the coming few decades to cushion the impact on their workforces via migration and a rise in both female and older... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election preview: the current state of play Parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May will make or break macroeconomic stability in Turkey. As things stand it looks more likely that opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu will become the... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What to do about Japan’s large corporate surplus? Japan’s large corporate sector surpluses are a key source of deflationary pressure. Corporate savings surged in the 1990s, primarily because net interest payments slumped, and have since remained... 2nd May 2023 · 16 mins read
Energy Focus Introducing our long-term energy market forecasts The global energy market is in the early days of a radical redesign due to the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In this Focus, we introduce our long-term energy market forecasts, which are... 27th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Assessing the physical climate change risks to property The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Malaria vaccine: a potentially big long-term boost The economic impact of the Oxford malaria vaccine, which has now been approved by regulators in Ghana and Nigeria, will depend on the pace and breadth of the rollout and how long immunity lasts for... 20th April 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack The geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly 1,425,775,850 and counting According to UN projections, India will today replace China as home to the world’s largest population. The key to unlocking this immense demographic potential is to develop the manufacturing sector... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Investment-lull in Nigeria, “disaster” no more in SA? The extreme weakness of FDI into Nigeria last year, shown in data published this week, underscores the scale of the economic challenges facing the new government. Without a marked turnaround in... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil flows, remittances boost, RBI preview The announcement from Russian oil giant Rosneft that it will ramp up oil imports to India, and the US court ruling enabling partners of H-1B visa holders to work in the country, should both serve to... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Long Run Focus How can ageing countries protect their labour forces? As countries age, falling working-age populations will make it harder to sustain growth in the size of the labour force. Lessons from countries that are already advanced in the ageing process suggest... 28th March 2023 · 25 mins read