Africa Economics Weekly Tinubu takes first steps, SA power projects progress In a positive early move, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in his first week in power. But it looks like the fiscal savings will be spent, leaving public debt on an upwards... 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi mortgages and 2022 census This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting will be closely watched. We expect that the group will stand pat on Sunday, but OPEC+ has a history of springing surprises. Meanwhile, the Kingdom’s 2022 Census revealed... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Focus India and the physical risks from climate change India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it... 31st May 2023 · 12 mins read
China Economics Update Answers to your questions on China’s slowdown Challenges to China’s long-run growth potential that were mounting a few years ago are now evident to all. We continue to expect trend growth to have fallen to around 2% in 2030. 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Aviation pins its hopes on sustainable jet fuel The aviation sector is pinning its hopes on sustainable aviation fuel to help cut its carbon footprint over the coming decades. But any ramp-up in biofuel usage would pit aviation against the needs of... 25th May 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update Which states could benefit from “friend-shoring”? In a fracturing global economy, India stands out as a prime location for the “friend-shoring” of manufacturing supply chains out of China. The manufacturing powerhouses of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Neutral interest rate may rise to 1% by 2050 As in other advanced economies, Australia’s neutral rate of interest rate will probably edge up a bit over the coming decades. That will result in higher borrowing costs, but Australia’s low public... 23rd May 2023 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack Policymakers can breathe easier on inflation The past month has brought some encouraging news on the inflation front. Consumer price inflation dropped sharply in April to an 18-month low, keeping the headline rate comfortably within the RBI’s 2... 22nd May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s electricity crisis threatening stagflation A quick solution to South Africa’s energy crisis is nowhere to be seen. Not only will power cuts remain a drag on economy but there are growing concerns that they are fuelling inflation, threatening... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Quantifying the economic hit from climate change Many academic studies underplay the extent to which higher temperatures could affect economic activity over the long run. Nonetheless, even in a scenario in which the global average temperature rose... 16th May 2023 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update Where will South Africa sit in a fracturing world? South Africa has traditionally sought to be non-aligned and, in our ‘mapping decoupling’ work, we placed it in neither the US nor the China camp. But recent developments suggest that it could be... 16th May 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Karnataka election matters for investors The state election in Karnataka was held this week, with results due on Saturday. The state has been on the forefront of the labour reform agenda. But a loss for the incumbent BJP as suggested by exit... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s election: Q&A on an opposition victory There’s a lot of optimism that the opposition will emerge victorious in Turkey’s elections, which would pave the way for a return to orthodox economic policy. Were this to happen, it would set the... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Will Thailand’s prospects improve after the election? Provided Thailand’s general election on 14th May does not set off a new round of political unrest and violence, the economy should grow strongly this year. But the long-term outlook is challenging... 8th May 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian debt sustainability revisited Our central scenario is that Italy’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline gradually in the long-run. However, the government will need to maintain sizeable primary budget surpluses to make that... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Can ageing countries keep their workforces growing? In theory, there is plenty of scope for those countries set to age most rapidly over the coming few decades to cushion the impact on their workforces via migration and a rise in both female and older... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
