Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can Egypt take advantage of a weak pound? Egypt’s shift back toward economic orthodoxy will result in near-term economic pain, but it could also pave the way for faster economic growth over a longer horizon. Part of that will rest on Egypt... 15th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait: déjà vu or the start of something new? The dissolution of Kuwait’s parliament for the fourth time in two years highlights political infighting that has held back the economy for years. While much remains uncertain, there is now a clear... 13th May 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly What would Trump’s return mean for India? With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display this week, we look at the implications of a possible second Trump presidency for India. While a 10% tariff on US imports could dent... 3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Answering your questions on the German economy On Tuesday we held a Drop-in on the outlook for the German economy. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed and answers some of the questions that we received during the event. 2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Focus Overcapacity will keep inflation near zero Most analysts expect China’s inflation rate to rebound to around 2% by 2026. In contrast, we think that persistent imbalances between supply and demand will keep it close to zero for the foreseeable... 30th April 2024 · 14 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 24) China’s senior leadership has today signalled further fiscal and monetary support for the economy and renewed efforts to stabilise the housing market. That should help prolong the recent economic... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Extreme weather and AI risks in the spotlight There has been more good news on India’s economy over the past couple of weeks, but two key near and medium-term risks that we have previously highlighted - extreme weather and the emergence of... 26th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s privatisation drive, dollarisation in Lebanon Egypt’s latest privatisation drive appears to have stalled after targets were watered down. The government doesn’t face the same need to secure revenues as it did recently, but privatisation is still... 25th April 2024 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook Life after the bubble The latest edition of our Long-Run Asset Allocation Outlook sets out what we think lies in store for equities, bonds, REITs, and commodities over the next 10 years and beyond. This includes relatively... 24th April 2024 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran-Israel tensions, Gulf floods, Egypt’s preliminary budget The ratcheting up of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, it seems unlikely that the Gulf states will get drawn in unless there is a serious... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Manufacturing ambitions across the political spectrum The general election kicks off in a week and manifestos are finally being released. Manifestos are rarely followed closely in India, but nevertheless it is encouraging that there is broad agreement... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift, Saudi gigaprojects, Morocco GDP Just over a month ago Egypt’s authorities underwent their dramatic shift to economic orthodoxy and the signs so far are more positive than in previous instances. The pound is more flexible, inflation... 11th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update A close race for fourth place The slump in the yen has resulted in Germany overtaking Japan as the world’s 3rd largest economy at market exchange rates. We expect Japan to overtake Germany yet again in the early 2030s as the yen... 9th April 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Indian bulls rage while elephants go for a walk Positive news on India's economy continues to roll in and that is being reflected in the performance of the stock market. But amid the optimism, this week we published an in-depth report highlighting... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read