China Economics Weekly Tech giants in the Party’s crosshairs The abrupt suspension of Ant’s IPO, which was supposed to enter the record books this week as the world’s largest, is a stark reminder of the political risks and lack of transparency that are still... 6th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus The world after COVID-19 We forecast that the returns from equities will beat those from government bonds in the world after COVID-19. However, we expect the outperformance of large-cap equities in the US to end. 20th October 2020 · 25 mins read
Long Run Focus The world after COVID-19 We forecast that the returns from equities will beat those from government bonds in the world after COVID-19. However, we expect the outperformance of large-cap equities in the US to end. 20th October 2020 · 25 mins read
Long Run Focus The role of the state in the post-pandemic world The state has taken on a much greater role in G7 countries during the pandemic and there is no guarantee that it will relinquish all its new powers when the coronavirus threat fades. The pandemic... 13th October 2020 · 23 mins read
Long Run Update Deglobalisation to continue whoever wins US election With the US election result likely to have limited near-term implications for world GDP, the main issue for the global economy is how it affects US trade policy. Joe Biden would take a less aggressive... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Fed adopts average inflation target Chair Jerome Powell announced this morning that the Fed will be adopting what he described as a “flexible form of average inflation targeting”, which we expect will trigger additional policy stimulus... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Xi’s “new development model” is more of the same In the face of growing tensions with much of the world, Xi Jinping this week called for a “new development model” that allows China’s economy to sustain rapid growth with less dependence on other... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update How will the fiscal costs of the crisis be dealt with? This Update draws together the conclusions from the various pieces of research that we have published in recent weeks on how the fiscal costs of the crisis will be dealt with. In short, we are... 10th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Reforms through the back door in India Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update How to think about the long-term effects of the virus The immediate effects of the coronavirus on the global economy are becoming increasingly clear and point to a sharp fall in output across the world. Recession looms. The effects over the longer term... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook Don’t expect another roaring ‘20s, even after virus fears fade This is the first edition of our annual Long-Term Asset Allocation Outlook. It covers the outlook for asset returns over the next decade, and is designed to complement the standard Asset Allocation... 4th March 2020 · 20 mins read
Long Run Update Coronavirus: the long-term impact on supply chains The coronavirus itself may not trigger a wholesale reorganisation of supply chains, but it strengthens the argument for companies to reduce associated risks. One response might be to introduce more... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Long Run Update Productivity outlook brighter for the next decade One of the biggest disappointments of this decade has been the stubborn weakness of global productivity growth. While we do not think that this is a permanent shift, a turn-around does not look... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Surge in participation rate nearing its end The surge in the participation rate that has boosted employment by nearly a tenth since 2012 and thereby underpinned stronger economic growth is running out of steam. This will have a big impact... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi bankruptcy law a step in the right direction Saudi Arabia’s new bankruptcy law, which was approved by King Salman last month, will make it easier to deal with the fallout from corporate failures and, through improving access to credit, support... 1st March 2018 · 5 mins read