Long Run Update Are we on the way to a bigger state? While it may take years or decades before the evidence is clear, there are tentative signs that the pandemic has accelerated a shift towards a bigger role for the state in advanced economies. 24th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Long Run Update Implications of more extreme weather events Climate change is already making extreme weather events more frequent and more intense, which will worsen as the planet warms further. This is most likely to cause short-term disruptions to economic... 6th September 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Long Run Update What the S&P 500’s valuation may mean for future returns Although the US stock market’s valuation is nearly as high now as it was at the height of dot com mania, we don’t expect the return from it to be as bad in the next decade as it was in the 2000s. 31st August 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Our views on the US dollar’s long-term prospects Although we forecast the greenback will rise further over the next year or two, we think that it will face growing headwinds over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we have made this FX... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Aug.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 24th August 2021 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inequality moves up the CPC’s agenda China’s leadership has signalled a growing focus on reducing inequality. This could boost the productivity of low-income households and speed up the long-touted rebalancing toward consumption. But, if... 19th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Implications of living with COVID Many countries are increasingly well-placed to ‘live with COVID’ and will be able to avoid the need for occasional lockdowns. However, this requires reaching and maintaining a high level of immunity... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jul. 2021) While emerging market equities have generally struggled since the previous edition of our Long Run Returns Monitor was published, most other asset classes have fared reasonably well. Most notably... 30th July 2021 · 1 min read
Long Run Update The implications of the pandemic decline in births Birth rates have fallen in several advanced economies during the pandemic. Although we think that fertility rates will bounce back and there won’t be material long-term impacts, this presents a small... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update The difficulties of capturing productivity improvements Recent methodological changes by the UK statistics body highlight the difficulties of capturing productivity improvements in official economic data. Although the revisions will make only a small... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus The CBDCs are coming We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital... 6th July 2021 · 20 mins read
Long Run Update Employment already declining at pace Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jun. 2021) Given that the moves in most financial markets since the previous editionof our Long Run Returns Monitor have been fairly small–at least for the period as a whole –the returns that we are projecting... 24th June 2021 · 1 min read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
