Long Run Update The difficulties of capturing productivity improvements Recent methodological changes by the UK statistics body highlight the difficulties of capturing productivity improvements in official economic data. Although the revisions will make only a small... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus The CBDCs are coming We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital... 6th July 2021 · 20 mins read
Long Run Update Employment already declining at pace Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jun. 2021) Given that the moves in most financial markets since the previous editionof our Long Run Returns Monitor have been fairly small–at least for the period as a whole –the returns that we are projecting... 24th June 2021 · 1 min read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will climb the global league table? Emerging markets as a whole will increase their share of global GDP over the coming decades, with the largest expansions likely to come in EMs with rapid population growth (sub-Saharan Africa), those... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (May 2021) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides an updated set of projections for the returns from major asset classes over the next few decades. Given that the period since the previous edition of this... 27th May 2021 · 1 min read
Long Run Update Scar free? The implications of a full economic recovery While the consensus has become more optimistic about the near-term recovery, most analysts – and the majority of central banks – still believe that the pandemic will leave a legacy of lower global... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Higher female participation to help India outperform There is typically more scope for female participation rates to rise and boost labour supply in EMs. This is particularly so in India and is one reason why we expect its economy to outperform in the... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Focus Will we start working less? The downward trend in average working hours in advanced economies has slowed or stalled in the past few decades. Yet there are reasons to think that the decline will resume, at least in some sectors... 13th May 2021 · 19 mins read
Long Run Update China & US censuses: don’t count on catch-up The 2020 US and China censuses add to the reasons why we think China will struggle to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s birth rate has continued to fall and the population will... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Apr. 2021) Following their sharp rises earlier on in the year, government bond yields have steadied over the past few weeks. Perhaps reflecting this, both global equities and developed market (DM) REITs have... 23rd April 2021 · 1 min read
Long Run Focus Accelerated technology use will improve productivity There is evidence that the pandemic has accelerated technology use, partly through increased equipment investment but mainly through a change in the way that people work. The effects on productivity... 16th April 2021 · 14 mins read
Long Run Update Will demographic changes boost inflationary pressures? The rapid growth of the global labour supply in the past few decades looks set to give way to a period of much weaker growth. Some argue that this will reverse the decline in inflation seen in recent... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update US stock market unlikely to keep beating its economy While the stock market fared much better than the economy in the US overall during the past ten years, we do not expect that to remain the case. 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update The outlook for deglobalisation We argued some time ago that globalisation had peaked and a period of deglobalisation might even lie ahead. It is now becoming clearer what to expect – namely a type of regionalism driven by the... 16th March 2021 · 6 mins read