Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook High inflation, tight monetary policy, valuations and returns Although the Fed is poised to step on the brakes to tackle the highest rate of inflation in four decades, we don’t expect the yields of US equities and Treasuries to rise to anywhere near their peaks... 18th February 2022 · 21 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Long Run Update Ageing a bigger threat than pandemic to public debt We expect governments in advanced economies to take action to prevent public sector debt ratios from spiralling out of control as their populations age. However, this is uncertain, and the risk is... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Our climate change assumptions Ahead of publishing our latest Long-Term Outlook next month, this Update sets out the assumptions we have made in our long term forecasts about both climate change and the efforts to prevent it. 13th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Ongoing pandemic to slow migration’s return to normal The continued threat of new virus waves, and therefore fresh rounds of travel restrictions, suggests that global migration flows could remain subdued for a while yet. However, we continue to doubt... 16th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will labour shortages spur productivity gains? One possible upside of the current labour market shortages in developed economies is that they could push firms towards expanding output by raising investment and productivity instead of relying on... 2nd December 2021 · 19 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 25th November 2021 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus How much scarring will the pandemic leave? The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy... 17th November 2021 · 18 mins read
Long Run Update COP26 a small step forward but much left to do COP26 has progressed efforts to fight climate change, but there is still a significant gap between pledges and actual policies. Unless action ramps up this decade, countries may face a choice between... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update COP26 unlikely to alter economic outlook The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, has the potential to be an important milestone but it is just one step along the path required to limit global warming. Accordingly, it will not on... 2nd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Oct.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 22nd October 2021 · 1 min read
Long Run Update The implications of accelerated renewable electricity use Accelerated adoption of renewable electricity will cause demand and prices of coal and natural gas to fall over the long run. While we think the global economy will handle this transition well, there... 15th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Economies after COVID: one year on It is a year since we published our “Economies after COVID” series, so now seems like a good time to pause and take stock of how our predictions about the legacy of the pandemic are shaping up. There... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s long-term property decline: the fallout for EMs Irrespective of how the current problems in China’s property sector are resolved, property construction there is entering a period of structural decline. Among other EMs, the main effects will be felt... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Sep.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 29th September 2021 · 1 min read
