Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Oct.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 22nd October 2021 · 1 min read
Long Run Update The implications of accelerated renewable electricity use Accelerated adoption of renewable electricity will cause demand and prices of coal and natural gas to fall over the long run. While we think the global economy will handle this transition well, there... 15th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Economies after COVID: one year on It is a year since we published our “Economies after COVID” series, so now seems like a good time to pause and take stock of how our predictions about the legacy of the pandemic are shaping up. There... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s long-term property decline: the fallout for EMs Irrespective of how the current problems in China’s property sector are resolved, property construction there is entering a period of structural decline. Among other EMs, the main effects will be felt... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Sep.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 29th September 2021 · 1 min read
Long Run Update Are we on the way to a bigger state? While it may take years or decades before the evidence is clear, there are tentative signs that the pandemic has accelerated a shift towards a bigger role for the state in advanced economies. 24th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Long Run Update Implications of more extreme weather events Climate change is already making extreme weather events more frequent and more intense, which will worsen as the planet warms further. This is most likely to cause short-term disruptions to economic... 6th September 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Long Run Update What the S&P 500’s valuation may mean for future returns Although the US stock market’s valuation is nearly as high now as it was at the height of dot com mania, we don’t expect the return from it to be as bad in the next decade as it was in the 2000s. 31st August 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Our views on the US dollar’s long-term prospects Although we forecast the greenback will rise further over the next year or two, we think that it will face growing headwinds over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we have made this FX... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Aug.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 24th August 2021 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inequality moves up the CPC’s agenda China’s leadership has signalled a growing focus on reducing inequality. This could boost the productivity of low-income households and speed up the long-touted rebalancing toward consumption. But, if... 19th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Implications of living with COVID Many countries are increasingly well-placed to ‘live with COVID’ and will be able to avoid the need for occasional lockdowns. However, this requires reaching and maintaining a high level of immunity... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jul. 2021) While emerging market equities have generally struggled since the previous edition of our Long Run Returns Monitor was published, most other asset classes have fared reasonably well. Most notably... 30th July 2021 · 1 min read
Long Run Update The implications of the pandemic decline in births Birth rates have fallen in several advanced economies during the pandemic. Although we think that fertility rates will bounce back and there won’t be material long-term impacts, this presents a small... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read