India Economics Update Prospects for female labour participation in India We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th August 2022 · 1 min read
Long Run Update Composition of spending will change as populations age The composition of spending changes as consumers age, with a greater proportion allocated to healthcare, food and drink, and less to education, transport and recreation. The experience of countries... 1st August 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation S&P 500’s valuation points to mediocre long-term returns US equities have plunged this year, but the S&P 500’s valuation remains a long way from looking low on most measures, including Shiller’s CAPE. This is a key reason why we expect the returns from US... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Which countries can offer lessons for ageing populations? Ageing populations will be one of the main structural challenges facing many economies over the coming decades. Ahead of a series of work analysing what can be learned from countries ageing rapidly... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update UN forecasts confirm broad demographic headwinds The UN’s latest population projections highlight that demographic headwinds are set to mount in almost all economies outside Africa. The most significant downward revisions were to its forecasts for... 13th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Is the low inflation era really over? At the recent ECB’s annual forum, the world’s top central bankers argued that a return to a world of low inflation was unlikely. It is true that sustained undershoots of inflation targets are probably... 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Inflation – how high is too high? While the current rise in inflation to near double-digit rates is clearly undesirable, it begs the question of at what point the costs of sustained higher inflation outweigh the benefits. We think... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Productivity in the pandemic It is still too early to assess the lasting impact of the pandemic on productivity in developed economies. But we remain optimistic that the legacy could be a positive one. 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant rehabilitation or tech rectification? If the Ant IPO is back on, as some are reporting, this is less likely to signal that the regulatory crackdown is being rolled back than that regulators feel they have successfully brought the formerly... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US equity valuations still much higher than elsewhere Despite the sharp fall in the US stock market this year so far, US equities still appear much more highly valued than their peers in the rest of the world. While that might not tell us much about the... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Are the demographic headwinds strengthening? A falling fertility rate and declining employment among retirement age workers pose downside risks to our long-term forecasts for Japan’s labour force and GDP growth. However, with the female... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q2) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th May 2022 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation chipping away at public debt ratios One benefit of the current rise in inflation, at least for governments, is that it is eroding the real value of public sector debt. But this will reverse only a small part of the pandemic-related rise... 10th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Which COVID-behavioural changes are permanent? We argued two years ago that the pandemic would accelerate changes that were already underway rather than trigger behavioural changes out of the blue. Now that most restrictions have been removed in... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Focus How inequality affects the long-run outlook Substantial fiscal support helped to prevent a big rise in income inequality within developed economies during the pandemic. But inequality was rising in many DMs before then and could revert to that... 3rd May 2022 · 18 mins read