Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding won, Vietnam politics, dovish surprises The rebound in the won is unlikely to be welcomed by the country’s struggling exporters, but will come as a relief to the Bank of Korea, which had become worried that higher import prices would keep... 20th January 2023 · 12 mins read
India Economics Weekly Electronics optimism, fracturing, vehicle sales drop There are more signs of a growing electronics ecosystem in India. This week, around a dozen suppliers to Apple’s international operations received clearance to expand into the country. And comments... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Shift to a bigger state won’t curtail GDP growth While the shift towards higher taxes and spending after the pandemic appears to be here to stay, there is little to suggest an expanded state would curtail GDP growth. But without supply-side reforms... 10th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How 2022 altered the long-run outlook for US equities Although valuation premia in certain parts of the US stock market shrank significantly last year, we think there is still some room for this to continue in the coming decade and weigh on their... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2023 In our final Weekly of 2022 we explore three key themes for the coming year – when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, whether there are further signs of a growing electronics ecosystem, and... 23rd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer demand push revived, COVID debacle, chips The Central Economic Work Conference ended today with a pledge of more support for consumers and property developers. That’s the second major policy document with a focus on consumers this week. Might... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and weak real income growth will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. With New Zealand’s central bank determined to... 12th December 2022 · 26 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gujarat election, semiconductors, Q1 Outlook The BJP’s huge win in the Gujarat state election could convince the ruling national party that it currently has enough electoral clout to push ahead with difficult structural reforms. Meanwhile... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Moderate recession to drive inflation lower The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices... 8th December 2022 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese carmakers struggling in decarbonising world The conventional wisdom is that the continued difficulties of Japan’s car industry reflect persistent supply shortages. But there are structural headwinds too as the industry has missed the EV... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Croatia entering a new era with euro adoption Croatia’s adoption of the euro on 1st January 2023 is likely to bring only small benefits to the economy given how widely used the euro already is in the country. Even so, we think prospects for... 30th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 25th November 2022 · 1 min read
