Latin America Economics Weekly Wage pressures, Mexico’s Tesla plant Labour market data released across the region this week flew under the radar, but the figures provide worrying signs that rapid wage growth in Brazil will continue to keep core inflation high. We take... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property returns to revive over the longer term The current economic downturn will mean that short-to-medium term property performance is under-par. But over a longer horizon, we expect real estate returns to reassert their traditional position... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: demographic drag worsening Figures released today highlight the dreadful demographic outlook facing Korea, with the population (excluding migrants) falling for a third year in a row. Poor demographics are the key reason why we... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Population trends to lower wheat demand from 2040s We expect the wheat price to remain high this year as events in Ukraine and drought in other key producers hurt supply. Although the wheat price should drop back after this, the worsening impacts of... 22nd February 2023 · 14 mins read
US Economics Update American protectionism and global fracturing While it is in America’s strategic interests to build stronger economic ties with allies to counter China’s growth, its protectionist tendencies could undermine those goals and blunt the effectiveness... 22nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update The impact of higher bond yields on public finances The higher bond yields that would follow abandonment of Yield Curve Control would make it more difficult to stabilise Japan’s public finances. But the long maturity of government debt means that the... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook 2022’s sell-off unlikely to set the stage for strong returns The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t... 21st February 2023 · 20 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia in 2050, Malaysia budget, Korea rate meeting Emerging Asia is set to play an increasingly important role in the global economy over the coming decades. According to our latest Long Run Outlook, seven of the world’s 20 largest economies will be... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Focus Unlocking India's demographic potential If it isn't already, India will soon be the world’s most populous nation. But this doesn’t mean that policymakers can simply wait for the economic benefits to arrive. The key to unlocking India’s... 15th February 2023 · 14 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Fracturing to reshape the global economic system The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt... 13th February 2023 · 1 hr, 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE’s energy crisis: looking beyond this winter The energy crisis in Central and Eastern Europe has lost some of its bite as natural gas prices have slumped and countries have made good progress in replacing Russian energy supplies. This has... 6th February 2023 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech-China tensions, Poland’s birth rate slumps The increase in tensions between the newly elected Czech president and Chinese authorities this week highlights the risk of a fracturing of economic ties between the two countries. For Czechia, China... 3rd February 2023 · 10 mins read
India Economics Update Budget has an eye on the long term While some of the measures unveiled in the FY23/24 Union Budget are geared towards shoring up popular support ahead of next year’s general election, there is a clear long-term focus too. The projected... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Saudi tourism, Lebanon re-pegs Egypt’s privatisation drive appears to be stepping up a gear in 2023 with plans to sell stakes in twenty companies which, if these materialise, will boost long-term economic prospects. But it remains... 2nd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Focus The curious case of China’s climate credentials There is a touch of the Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde about China’s climate credentials, with its well-documented record of burgeoning emissions and reliance on coal standing in stark contrast to its... 31st January 2023 · 16 mins read
China Economics Update Lifting the official retirement age is not the answer The contraction in China’s population has triggered renewed discussion of what the government could do to counter the demographic drag. One popular suggestion is to lift China’s statutory retirement... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
