China Economics Update Plenum Decision fleshes out existing reform agenda The complete Third Plenum “Decision” document provides interesting details on the leadership’s reform agenda across a range of areas. Overall though, it reinforces the central message in last week’s... 22nd July 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy... 18th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update UN projections point to slower global population growth The downward revisions to global population growth in the UN’s latest projections won’t have a major bearing on our long-term GDP growth forecasts. That’s because a lot of the revision was driven by... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi pension changes, Saudi and Egypt Q1 BoP data The increase in Saudi Arabia statutory retirement age could increase the size of the labour force by 10% by 2040 and, in turn, lift potential GDP growth by as much as 1%-pt per annum. Meanwhile, Q1’s... 11th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not... 1st July 2024 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: The future of global macro and markets leadership - Will the US be overtaken? We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 2 - Will the US retain its economic lead and who might challenge it? The US’s economic leadership is partly related to its sheer size, but its population also works more than other countries and it fares better on productivity. While the US economy faces various... 10th June 2024 · 39 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Executive Summary: The future of global macro and markets leadership We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB fires starting gun but rate cuts will be gradual The ECB began its easing cycle today, as expected, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest that it will proceed cautiously. We now think the Bank will cut interest rates by only a further... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What Modi 3.0 means for India's economy Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Window for policy tightening is closing A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to... 4th June 2024 · 18 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in a momentous week India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Apple’s ambitions, Iran port deal, Russian oil The government's announcement this week of a long-term contract to develop and operate a port in Iran through which India will be able to transport goods into Central Asia is an illustration of how... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about... 16th May 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read