Global Trade Monitor Virus to reduce world trade by a fifth in 2020 The latest trade figures from the CPB revealed only a small fall in world trade volumes in January, but export orders from the PMI surveys have since slumped. With the coronavirus plunging the world... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Will the market rout trigger a balance of payments crisis? Foreign portfolio flows out of India’s markets have surged over the past month to more than double the peak during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013, which pushed India to the brink of a balance of payments... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Mar.) There are signs that trade has recovered somewhat from the shock of Chinese factory shutdowns, with both exports and imports bouncing back over the first 20 days of March. But with the world economy... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) Exports bounced back in February even as China’s economy came to a standstill. But with the coronavirus now disrupting economic activity across the globe, that resilience won’t last. 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update External position secure amid market turbulence India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a one-year low in February and the collapse in oil prices since then should push the deficit even lower in the months ahead. As such, we now expect the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower oil prices are not great for Australians Lower oil prices and government transfer payments may boost household disposable incomes in the coming months. But we think the downturn in consumer confidence and the rising number of cases of the... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Oil price collapse a positive amid market rout The plunge in oil prices over the past week means there’s a good chance that India records a rare current account surplus over the coming quarters. This should help to ensure that the rout in local... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Jan.) The stagnation in GDP in January shows that the economy was weak even before people started worrying about the coronavirus. And our more timely measures of activity, such as weekly cinema sales... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth was stable last month despite the slump in economic activity. In most countries, credit growth would slow sharply in response to a shock such as the coronavirus, as households defer... 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Mar.) Korean trade data for the first 10 days of March suggest that the disruption from factory closures in China to regional industry eased recently, although both imports and exports remain depressed. 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession will prompt RBNZ to slash rates We think that the coronavirus outbreak and the related disruptions in China and to tourism more broadly will push the New Zealand economy into recession. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to slash rates... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads There is a huge amount of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, and any forecasts should be taken with more than the usual... 10th March 2020 · 10 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Exports dropped the most since 2008 at the start of this year. Imports held up better but at the expense of a jump in inventories. Inbound shipments will soon play catch-up with the slump in domestic... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & International Trade (Jan.) The 30,000 rise in employment in February is encouraging, but the real test will come in the next few months as the effects of the coronavirus outbreak are felt. Despite the strong labour market, the... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Grim outlook means RBA will launch QE before long Recent data show that the Australian economy was sputtering even before the coronavirus started to spread within the country in earnest. We now think the rising number of cases in Australia will cause... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
