India Economics Weekly Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas sector expansion to boost the Israeli Shekel A further expansion of gas production is likely to boost Israel’s current account surplus by an additional 0.4% of GDP per annum by 2025. This will put upwards pressure on the real exchange rate, but... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update External demand to support economy in Q2 India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low in May as exports held up much better than imports. Strong external demand will help to offset some of the damage to domestic demand caused... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The outlook remains bright for CEE exports While the composition of Central and Eastern European (CEE) exports is set to change over the coming quarters as some of the effects of the pandemic unwind, we forecast that export growth will remain... 10th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt vaccine, MENA tourism, Iran nuclear talks Egypt’s domestic vaccine production has got underway, but the country has a very long way to go before it can lift virus-related restrictions on a sustained basis. Egypt and Bahrain were added to the... 10th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past few weeks and Turkey and India (which suffered large outflows in April and May) have started to see renewed inflows. Even if... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr) The sharp drop in the trade deficit, to $68.9bn in April from $75.0bn a month earlier, largely reflects cooling demand for consumer goods now the boost from fiscal stimulus is fading and demand is... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The global semiconductor shortage weighed heavily on exports and imports of motor vehicles in April and this disruption continued in May. While exports elsewhere performed better, the broad-based... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Headline trade growth remained elevated last month. But trade volumes dropped back in levels terms and, while supply constraints are partly to blame, there are signs that demand may have peaked too. 7th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade & Retail Sales (Apr.) The trade surplus widened again in April but that was largely driven by higher commodity prices. Export volumes will need to recover further in the months ahead to prevent trade from being a drag on... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (May) Korean export values surged to an all-time high in May, suggesting that the external sector will drive GDP higher once again this quarter. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The May PMIs softened slightly but were still mainly consistent with improvements in manufacturing sectors. Strong global demand for electronics will continue to support output over the next few... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Switzerland waves Auf Wiederloge to a new EU Treaty While the breakdown in Treaty talks between Switzerland and the EU makes the outlook for Swiss exporters more uncertain, we doubt that the lasting economic impact will be very big. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A closer look at the EM export boom EM exports are set to hit a new high in Q2, which will help to support economic growth, particularly in East Asia where virus cases are hitting domestic economies. While EM exports are likely to come... 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
