Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market damage & renewed trade tensions The unemployment rate is unlikely to remain as low as 6.2%, as it was in April. Many of those who left the labour force last month will probably start to look for a job as the economy reopens. Even so... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s border closure will hit harder in Q2 The border closure will result in a collapse in revenue from foreign tourists and a marked fall in revenue from foreign students in Q2. And while the government will probably allow foreign students to... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th May.) Korean trade data for the first ten days of May show that exporters have taken a massive hit from lockdowns across the world. This bodes poorly for exporters across the rest of the region too. 11th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi In a sign that consumption is still being held back by concerns over the virus and households’ finances, domestic tourism spending during the Labour Day holiday was down 60% y/y despite the fact that... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Easing of restrictions lays ground for rebound in H2 Australia’s government unveiled its roadmap for the reopening of the economy on Friday, which lays the ground for a strong recovery in consumption and output in the third quarter. However, we are less... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) China’s exports were much stronger than anticipated in April but are likely to drop back sharply this month. In contrast, the recent resilience of imports faltered in April as inbound shipments began... 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The massive rebound in exports in March is hardly surprising given the impact of a cyclone in February but we think weakness in global demand will weigh on export growth in the coming months. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US-China tensions unlikely to subside before election There is a good chance that the renewal of antagonism between the US and China, this time over the origin of the coronavirus rather than trade, will persist – and might even escalate – in the run up... 6th May 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to $44.4bn in March, from $39.8bn, came as a further fall in imports was outpaced by a plunge in exports, with both driven by a collapse in international travel and... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
International Trade (Mar.) Business closures from the middle of the month contributed to the sharp falls in trade in March. As many manufacturers remained closed for the whole of April and oil prices fell even further, exports... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Apr.) Korean export values fell sharply in April and with global demand collapsing, trade is likely to remain very weak. Indeed, we wouldn’t be surprised if the May data worsened further still. 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi balance sheet, curfews easing, Lebanon spat Figures published over the past week have provided the first signs of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s from lower oil prices; but we remain comfortable with our view that the dollar peg will remain intact... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Global Trade Monitor A weak start to what will be a dreadful year for world trade Whilst the CPB world trade data showed another small drop in February, with lockdowns taking effect across much of the world in March, we expect much sharper falls in the coming months. In total, we... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
