Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) The slump in retail sales in April should be followed by a strong rebound as restrictions are eased. However, both exports and imports will remain weak as the border closure weighs on services trade. 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak external demand to weigh on recoveries Disruption to supply chains and depressed demand mean that euro-zone goods exports will slump this year, hitting open economies such as the Netherlands and Germany the most. But the hit to services... 3rd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (May) Korean export values sank further in May after collapsing in April, and while this is likely to mark the bottom, external demand is only likely to recover very slowly in the coming months. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for exports? Given the collapse in the global economy, merchandise exports from Emerging Asia have so far held up better than might have been anticipated. The fact that the global slump has been driven by services... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Trade volumes down for third month and worse is to come Given that the lockdowns were implemented in most countries in March, the 1.4% m/m contraction in world trade volumes seems fairly muted. However, the global number was flattered by a sharp rebound in... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook The main event this week is the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later today. We’ll publish our analysis of the key NPC reports once they are released. The NPC aside, US-China tensions... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Exports plunged in April and are set to continue falling sharply for a while yet with economic activity in Japan’s main trading partners remaining extremely depressed. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th May) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of May show no signs of a turnaround in exports despite the easing of lockdowns in many trading partners. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in sterling could have further to run If we are right in thinking that some sort of compromise can still be reached on a UK-EU trade deal, the tentative recovery in the pound over the past few days could continue. 20th May 2020 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) While Chile’s economy grew strongly in Q1, this was largely due to favourable base effects resulting from strikes in Q4, and hides a sharp deterioration in activity in March. We expect a steep... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data indicate extreme weakness in demand The 60% y/y contraction in goods exports and imports in April highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. This will probably mark the bottom as restrictions on activity are... 18th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Goods Trade (Mar.) Euro-zone trade values fell sharply in March, and more open economies will suffer most from the drop in global demand. But the stringency and duration of virus containment measures will be a more... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
