India Chart Pack Rupee could weaken even if risk appetite holds up After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. But while we think risky assets generally –... 22nd July 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th July) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of July suggest that the recovery in exports has continued this month. But the initial rebound has still been weak and the recovery in external demand in the... 21st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) Export volumes were little changed in June but they should rebound soon as many of Japan’s trading partners are on the mend. By contrast, import volumes never fell much despite the slump in domestic... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Rare trade surplus gives little reason to cheer India’s monthly trade balance swung into its largest monthly surplus on record in June. But this is not something to celebrate since it is the result of continued weakness in domestic demand. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s opportunistic buying has run its course China’s commodity import volumes surged in June, while exports remained in the doldrums. We expect this trend to partially reverse in the coming months as higher commodity prices will curb bargain... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Inbound shipments jumped the most in m/m terms in years, adding to evidence that domestic demand was strong at the end of Q2. Exports also strengthened as slower shipments of products related to COVID... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Jul.) Korean trade data for the first ten days of this month suggest that the recovery in external demand gained a little momentum at the start of July. This should carry on over the coming months, albeit... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equity rally to boost growth but risks inflating a bubble Chinese equites surged this week, after state media talked up the value of a stock market rally in countering economic headwinds. Output may benefit in the short-run – at its peak the 2015 rally was... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Recovery underway as Singapore heads to the polls The main priority for Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), which is certain to win tomorrow’s general election, is ensuring a strong recovery from the crisis. There are good reasons to... 9th July 2020 · 8 mins read
India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade data, oil producers in the line of fire South Africa’s external sector probably shifted from being an economic tailwind to a headwind in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Africa’s oil producers are facing mounting pressure from OPEC to comply... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) The merchandise trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $0.7bn in May, from $4.3bn, as exports were boosted by the reopening of motor vehicle production plants and the rebound in crude oil prices. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (May) The trade balance was broadly stable in May but given significant price effects, trade may have been another drag on GDP growth in Q2. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update A brief foray into current account surplus India’s current account swung into a rare surplus in Q1. That probably won’t last for long as oil prices rebound, remittances drop and the trade deficit starts to widen again over the coming months... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Jun.) Korean export values nudged up very slightly in June, after collapsing in April and May, but while external demand is probably now past the worst, it is only likely to recover slowly in the coming... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
