Asia Economics Weekly Slow recovery in the Philippines, Taiwan-US FTA A long and strict lockdown meant the Philippines suffered one of the biggest falls in GDP in the region in the second quarter. The most recent data suggest that it is also experiencing one of the... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jul.) The fall in export values in July is consistent with our view that exports won’t rebound much in Q3, but the jump in import values suggests that domestic demand is now on the mend. 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide more evidence of uneven recovery The further rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a nine-year high of 52.5 in August, from 51.4 in July, suggests that the EM recovery continued in the middle of Q3. But the rebound has been uneven... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs underpin the strength in metals prices China’s August PMI readings support our view that the economy will return to its pre-virus trend by the end of this year, which is positive for almost all commodities prices, but especially industrial... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Aug.) Korean export values rose again in August and we expect a continued recovery in external demand to drive further small improvements in the months ahead. 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Low oil prices are supporting the recovery China’s economy is benefiting from a favourable combination of strong demand at home but weak global demand for energy and low oil prices. As a result, the current account surplus has jumped to a five... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pressure on the Kenyan shilling to persist Kenya’s current account deficit will probably widen in the coming quarters and could reach as much as 6.5% of GDP over this year as a whole. We expect the shilling to continue to depreciate against... 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for dividend payments is not as gloomy as it was Although dividend payments have fallen during coronavirus, that does not mean that the outlook for stock markets is poor. On the contrary, a decline in dividends has often been followed by a surge in... 24th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Risk to overall trade from China is limited China has launched an anti-dumping investigation into Australian wine imports which could result in costly tariffs on Australian wine before long. But the bulk of Australia’s exports to China are LNG... 21st August 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Aug.) While exports dropped back a little in the first 20 days of August, we suspect this was mainly due to the impact of widespread flooding at the start of the month. Looking at the data more recently... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains easing, but pound to weaken The worst of the strains in Egypt’s balance of payments is probably now over and the current account deficit should narrow over the coming quarters, but we still think that the pound will gradually... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing greater headwinds EM goods exports rebounded reasonably strongly in June and July but, with the global recovery showing signs of losing momentum, further gains from here are likely to be slow-going. 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
