China Economics Weekly

China Weekly: US tightens export controls, births rise

The final export control measures of Joe Biden's presidency further restrict China's access to advanced AI technology and mark another escalation in geopolitical fragmentation. Meanwhile, although...

17th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum

The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline...

17th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt’s fiscal future

The provisional ceasefire deal in Gaza, subject to final approval from both sides (which Israel's PM Netanyahu has called into question today), could mark a major de-escalatory step. For the...

16th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has b een updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the...

15th January 2025 · 0 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Unpacking Mexico’s ties with the US

Mexico is arguably the most vulnerable economy to US trade protectionism. This in-depth analysis maps out economic and financial linkages between Mexico and its northern neighbour to provide a clearer...

15th January 2025 · 15 mins read

Global Economics Update

Tariff front-running to temporarily boost world trade

There is already some evidence of US importers increasing orders, at least for goods from China, before Trump’s proposed tariffs come into effect. We think this may continue in the next few months...

15th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: better placed to face Trump now?

Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position...

14th January 2025 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Dec. 2024)

Export growth rebounded last month, with both export values and volumes posting double-digit y/y gains. We expect shipments to remain strong in the coming months, as US importers continue to stockpile...

13th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus

While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming...

10th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi debt issuance, Egypt-IMF, Lebanon’s new president

Saudi Arabia kicked off the year with bumper international debt issuance and, with foreign investment remaining weak and budget deficits likely to persist, the government’s reliance on capital markets...

9th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Event

US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term

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As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin

Canada Economics Focus

Trump, Tariffs, and the 51st State

Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10% universal import...

9th January 2025 · 19 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump 2.0 – US and Asia macro implications

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2025 has started with a bang as bonds have sold off amid growth and inflation fears – and the operating environment may only get more tricky from here.

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Is Egypt at risk of a sudden stop?

The improvement in Egypt’s macroeconomic stability since March’s policy shift has resulted in a surge in capital inflows on a similar scale to that which followed the 2016 devaluation. But if signs...

8th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Nov. 2024)

The third consecutive rise in export volumes in November provides further evidence that the economy was gaining momentum at the end of last year. US tariffs could cause the recovery to go into reverse...

7th January 2025 · 2 mins read