India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira to fall further as policy response fails to appease The Turkish lira has continued to weaken in recent weeks and, with the response by policymakers likely to fail to placate investors, we now expect the currency to fall to as low as 9.25/$ by the end... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Globalisation will stall in the wake of COVID-19 Global supply chains have functioned well this year despite the disruption of social distancing and lockdowns, and people in many places appear more appreciative of migrants. But the pandemic is... 22nd September 2020 · 25 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Sep.) Exports rebounded to pre-crisis levels for the first time in the first 20 days of September and, while we don’t necessarily think export values will keep going from strength to strength, today’s data... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan policy rate set for an extended hold With the economy holding up relatively well, the decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates on hold came as no surprise. Further rate cuts are unlikely, and we expect interest... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data point to sluggish demand recovery The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in August won’t put the external position at risk, but the underlying data suggest that the recovery in external and domestic demand is stuttering. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) Exports continued to recover in August while import volumes fell. Indeed, we expect net trade to provide a sizeable boost to growth this quarter following a huge drag in Q2. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The strong 6.6% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that the record-breaking negative growth rate of GDP in Q2 will be followed by a record-breaking positive growth rate in Q3. However, July was probably... 11th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Sep.) Korean exports rose in levels terms in the first 10 days of September and, with trading-partner economies still getting back on their feet, we expect further gradual improvements in external demand. 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs gain from China’s strong recovery? China’s strong economic recovery is likely to provide more of a support to the recovery in (non-oil) commodity producers in Latin America and Africa than it will in the rest of Asia. But we don’t... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus Introducing our new China Activity Proxy (CAP) For over a decade, we have tracked the performance of China’s economy independently from the official GDP figures using our China Activity Proxy (CAP). We are now introducing a revamped version of... 10th September 2020 · 30 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Mexico’s 2021 budget The frugal 2021 budget proposed by Mexico’s government underlines policymakers’ fixation about public debt risks and concerns about their credit rating. Meeting policymakers’ new and ambitious targets... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) The pick-up in headline export growth last month reflects base effects and masks a slowdown in levels terms. Meanwhile, imports are doing just as well as exports once price effects are adjusted for. 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A PMI puzzle, Brazil’s GDP oddities & budget A string of eye-catching economic data releases this week has fuelled yet more optimism about the strength of Brazil’s recovery. But digging into the details suggests that there may be less to some of... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
