China Data Response Trade (Oct.) Exports continued to do well last month thanks to a shift in consumption, from services toward goods, in many of China’s trading partners. Meanwhile, inbound shipments held up better than the decline... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Lockdown déjà vu The second lockdown will probably reduce the level of GDP in November by about 8.0% m/m. That would mean GDP in November would be about 15.5% below February’s level and might not regain its pre-crisis... 6th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China threat to trade is growing Exports to China haven't fallen as much as those to other parts of the word despite mounting trade tensions. China has so far kept disruptions to trade to smaller export categories. But with reports... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly and we suspect that... 5th November 2020 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The widening of the trade balance in September was not enough to prevent trade from being a significant drag on growth in Q3. 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) & ADP Employment (Oct.) Although the markets remain firmly focused on the fallout from the election, the 365,000 rise in the ADP measure of private employment in October indicates that the labour market recovery is starting... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Oct.) Korean export values picked up to above pre-crisis levels in October and grew in working-day adjusted y/y terms for the first time since late-2018. While large second waves of the virus across the... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q3, provisional) Korean GDP rebounded last quarter as exports bounced back strongly, and with the economic impact of the “second wave” fading and exports picking up further, the recovery is set to continue over the... 27th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Economies in need of continued policy support National accounts data due to be published over the next few weeks will show that although many economies experienced record-breaking rebounds in GDP last quarter, output remains well below pre-crisis... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Weak recoveries, default risks still high Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been... 22nd October 2020 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery suffers a setback Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more... 22nd October 2020 · 28 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook An uphill struggle The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so... 21st October 2020 · 26 mins read
