Global Economics Update Surge in shipping costs adds to near-term price pressure The surge in global shipping costs over the past six months is likely to be short-lived and several factors will dampen the full pass-through to consumer prices. Even so, it adds to a growing list of... 19th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit likely to widen further The widening in India’s goods trade deficit to an 18-month high in December still has further to run, particularly as a recovery in both domestic demand and global oil prices pushes import values... 18th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly COVID-19 economic hole far smaller November’s GDP figures which suggested that the economy ended 2020 in a far better position than we had thought and the promising start to the vaccine roll out have given us some cause for optimism... 15th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be... 14th January 2021 · 20 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Dec.) Exports continued to do well last month, as renewed lockdowns abroad ensured the shift in consumption from services to goods persisted in many of China’s trading partners. Meanwhile, a pick-up in... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the... 11th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Vaccines to hasten recovery despite third virus wave Japan is battling a third virus wave and is a laggard in the global vaccine rollout race. Even so, we expect economic activity to return to pre-virus levels in the second half of this year as vaccines... 11th January 2021 · 22 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Jan.) Korean trade data suggest that strong export growth continued at the start of the year and reaffirm our view that exports will remain an important support to recoveries in Korea and across Asia. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave delays the recovery The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the... 7th January 2021 · 12 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) Exports rose in November and the recent improvement in the business surveys bodes well for growth in the coming months, but the lockdowns suggest that GDP will still edge down in the first quarter. 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The widening of the trade deficit in November came as import growth continued to outpace export growth and means net trade will be a significant drag on fourth quarter GDP growth. Those additional... 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) A surge in imports meant that the trade balance narrowed in November so we now think that trade was a modest drag on growth in Q4. 2.6 6.4 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Current account to return to deficit in 2021 India’s current account is likely to swing from an unprecedented surplus in 2020 back into deficit in 2021 as domestic demand rebounds and oil prices continue to recover. But when it does return, the... 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Dec.) Manufacturing PMIs and Korean trade data suggest that regional industry and exports saw another sharp improvement at the end of the year. While some of this strength may fade in the coming quarters... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus The unusual resilience of trade and what lies in store The relative resilience of real global merchandise trade during the pandemic has reflected several factors, most importantly robust goods spending in advanced economies. Merchandise trade flows are... 23rd December 2020 · 18 mins read
