Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Dec./Q4) The decline in retail sales in December largely just reflects the impact of Black Friday sales. Given the reopening of the Victorian economy in Q4 consumption probably still rose strongly in the... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Dec. 2020) December’s rise in exports partly reflects higher commodity prices and with goods import volumes above pre-virus levels, we think that net trade won’t be a big contributor to GDP growth over coming... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Jan.) Korean exports remain elevated at the start of this year, buoyed by shipments of electronics and autos. While some of this strength may fade later in the year, Korea’s external sector is still set for... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade surpasses pre-virus level Another increase in world trade in November meant that it exceeded its pre-pandemic level, though exports remained depressed in the US and emerging Europe. Since November, container freight rates have... 26th January 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC takes aim at digital payments duopoly The People’s Bank this week issued draft guidelines that would force China’s mobile payments giants to cede ground to their rivals or face being broken up. The argument that this is needed to foster... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s jump in borrowing is likely to set the tone for the next few months as the third COVID-19 lockdown keeps many businesses closed and will only increase talk of how to pay for the crisis. But... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
India Chart Pack The benefits and costs of tighter NBFC regulation The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to tighten regulation of non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) over the coming weeks. Alongside stricter audits of many smaller lenders, the RBI is likely to... 21st January 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Jan.) Korean exports remained elevated at the start of the year. While some of this strength may fade in the coming quarters, Korea’s external sector is still set for another decent performance in 2021. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Dec. 2020) While export values failed to reach pre-virus levels again in December they should remain fairly strong at the start of the year, with net trade set to provide another boost to growth in Q1. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Falling virus cases an upside risk this quarter Our forecast for a 1.5% q/q fall in consumption in Q1 rests on the assumption that some businesses in virus hotspots will be forced to close in order to contain Japan’s most severe wave of the... 20th January 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
