Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Feb. 2021) Korean export values were close to a record high last month, and the external sector should provide another boost to GDP growth this quarter. 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Shipping strains to ease as goods demand moderates While the latest signs are that capacity constraints in global shipping are continuing to bite, we expect these to subside over the course of the year. Indeed, as vaccine rollouts allow economies to... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Markets reading the roadmap to higher interest rates wrong The surge in 10-year gilt yields to a one-year high of more than 0.80% this week has been driven by the markets’ expectations that the economic recovery will prompt the Bank of England to raise... 26th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2021 – Preview While policymakers in the US are wrangling about how much additional stimulus is required, the debate in the UK is more about what tax rises are needed to repair the damage to the public finances... 25th February 2021 · 20 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Feb.) Korean exports are performing very strongly so far this month, even accounting for the seasonal distortions from the Lunar New Year. This strength is likely to continue in the short term at least, as... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s poor borrowing figures are likely to set the tone for the next few months as the third COVID-19 lockdown keeps many businesses closed. But the Chancellor should resist the urge to try to... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy entered lockdown with strong momentum The pick-up in GDP in Q4 was stronger than most had anticipated. And while it still left output 2.9% below the peak reached ahead of 2019’s sales tax hike, other economic data released this week are... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Challenges of big central bank balance sheets are manageable One legacy of the pandemic is a huge expansion in central banks’ balance sheets. Fears that this will automatically boost inflation are overdone. So, too, are worries that central banks will provoke a... 17th February 2021 · 25 mins read
Japan Data Response Jpn Trade (Jan. 2021) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2020) While some of the rise in exports in January was likely due to the timing of the lunar new year, they should have continued to rise faster than imports across this quarter, with net trade likely to... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External position looks secure The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in January is likely to soon reverse as the recovery in domestic demand and oil prices pushes up imports. But while this means that India’s recent current... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Pandemic has improved Italy’s debt dynamics The COVID-19 crisis has led to something of a paradox: Italy’s public debt ratio has risen, but the probability of default has fallen. That’s largely because BTP yields are likely to stay far lower... 11th February 2021 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB write off government debt? A debt write-off would wipe out much of the recent increase in public debt burdens and give the ECB more scope to expand its balance sheet in the future. But the fiscal benefits for euro-zone... 9th February 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus COVID-19 legacy may be higher inflation and bigger public deficits Our view that the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be quicker and more complete than most forecasters expect suggests that the economic legacy of the crisis may not be a permanently smaller... 8th February 2021 · 19 mins read
