Global Trade Monitor Little sign of disruption from Suez blockage The blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given container ship, which ran aground exactly one month ago, has had limited effects on shipping congestion and container freight rates worldwide... 23rd April 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Improved trade positions set to gradually unwind The broad-based improvement in EM goods trade balances over the past year is likely to unwind over the coming quarters as consumption patterns gradually normalise and oil prices recover further. But... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Implications of a trade war with China New Zealand is playing with fire by criticising the human rights situation in China’s Xinjiang province. While China is highly dependent on New Zealand’s flagship dairy, meat and logs exports, it... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Apr.) Korean export values look set to remain well above pre-crisis levels in April, and a buoyant external sector will continue to prop up GDP even as the virus weighs on domestic consumption. 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Mar. 2021) While export values rose in March, the rebound in exports slowed significantly across Q1 and external demand is unlikely to provide much of a tailwind to growth this year. 19th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China trade: how are our predictions stacking up? The latest China trade data show that ore imports are rebounding, though scrap imports remain subdued. Meanwhile, imports of refined copper have seen a renewed surge. Nevertheless, we continue to... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (April. 2021) With the notable exception of Turkey, the net capital outflows from emerging markets seen in February and March appear to have eased in recent weeks. Outflows may yet intensify over the coming... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity trade: cutting through the noise China’s imports of key industrial commodities point to ongoing strength in domestic demand. But the bigger picture is that import volumes remain well below last year’s peaks, and we expect growth in... 13th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Mar.) Export and import growth remained elevated in y/y terms last month, even as base effects turned slightly less favourable. In level terms, exports dropped back slightly but imports continued to rise... 13th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Apr.) Korean export values dipped at the start of April, but we wouldn’t read too much into it – the 10-day data can be volatile and, in any case, exports remain well above their pre-crisis level. 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Aggregate world trade data mask Asia/RoW disparity While Asian goods exports have fared better than those from the rest of the world and especially those from advanced economies over the past year, this performance gap should narrow as economies... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade & Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales and the trade surplus declined in February but while we still expect consumption to rise in Q1, net trade may have been a drag on growth. 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Suez blockage could add to pressure on shipping costs Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau suggested that world trade had shrugged off rising shipping costs up to January, with real goods trade rising by 2.5% m/m. The outlook is broadly positive. But if... 25th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update FDI outlook remains upbeat Parliament’s approval this week of a loosening of restrictions on FDI in the insurance sector will not have a significant macro impact, but it provides reassurance that FDI reform remains a priority... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Recent EM export strength likely to fade EM exports have continued to rise sharply in recent months and this strength may persist for a little while yet. But the big tailwind to some of the Asian economies from strong demand for electronics... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
