China Economics Weekly Changing views on China, export demand peaking While China’s Communist Party was celebrating its achievements at its official centenary this week, a global survey revealed a sharp decline in popular enthusiasm for economic engagement with China in... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi transport & labour market, Egypt CA deficit The National Transport and Logistics Strategy launched in Saudi Arabia this week is the latest effort to boost the Kingdom’s non-oil sector, but it will raise more concerns whether resources are being... 1st July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (May 2021) While export values hit a record high in May, this was largely driven by soaring export prices and export volumes probably dropped back. However, we think that the drag from net trade on GDP growth... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (June) After a strong end to the month, Korean export values reached a fresh all-time high in June. But with some signs external demand is levelling off and semiconductor shortages are biting, we suspect... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s cocoa boom, core inflation still low in S. Africa Optimism is growing about a potential bumper cocoa harvest in Ghana, which could boost exports by more than 1% of GDP and presents an upside risk to our above-consensus growth forecasts. Meanwhile... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Price and wage expectations continue to rise The latest CFIB Business Barometer shows that, as the re-opening process got underway, firms’ selling price expectations surged in June. Firms now expect to raise their prices by an average of 4.7%... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly August rate hike in Korea, Indonesia outbreak We were already more hawkish that the consensus in expecting a rate hike in Korea this year, but recent comments by the central bank and strong economic data mean we are shifting forward our forecast... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.3% m/m rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by another big increase in commercial aircraft orders reflecting the recovery in air travel, with underlying orders weaker than expected... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack Borrowing costs will remain in check India’s 10-year government bond yields have remained stable at around 6% over the past month, taking the unexpectedly large jump in inflation in May and a more hawkish turn by the US Fed in their... 23rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
