Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s fragile external position poses risk to dinar Tunisia’s external position is in a dire state and policymakers have little ammunition available to defend the dinar. We think the currency will depreciate by more than 10% against the euro by the end... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Backsliding on reforms? The repeal this month of controversial reforms aimed at liberalising the agriculture sector is arguably the biggest political setback that the Modi government has faced since coming to power in 2014... 24th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Nov.) Korean export values saw continued strength in the first 20 days of November and should remain elevated in the coming months as exporters work through large backlogs of unmet orders. 22nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycles have further to run Inflation in the emerging world has generally surprised to the upside in recent months. But while inflation in most parts of Asia remains at levels which central banks are comfortable with, it has... 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Oct. 2021) The recovery in exports in October suggests that supply shortages were beginning to ease in the automobile sector. We think that the rebound in exports will pick up pace over the coming months as... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs have persisted in recent weeks and, looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows over the coming months. The good news is that –... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Where are frontier sovereign debt risks greatest? The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update External strains abate, but pockets of risk remain While external risks have subsided across much of Sub-Saharan Africa in recent quarters, pockets of vulnerability remain. External (and, as a result, debt) vulnerabilities look most acute in Ethiopia. 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Oct.) Exports continued to soar last month while imports took another leg down despite directives to raise coal supply amid power rationing. As a result, the trade surplus reached its highest level since... 8th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain & Oman: austerity and Gulf help needed The rally in oil prices has opened the door for some of the larger Gulf economies to loosen fiscal policy, but governments in Bahrain and Oman will need to continue tightening to repair their dire... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Oct.) After another strong month in October, Korean export values are set to remain elevated as high demand for electronics and petroleum products offsets troubles in the auto sector. 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Energy shortages starting to ease Despite a flurry of media reports in September hinting at widespread disruption, the data suggest that China’s recent power shortages have not been too severe. Electricity output actually rose 0.6% in... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
