Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24) GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies... 22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2024) Capital flows into EMs reversed course during the bout of market turmoil earlier this month. But the decline was no larger than that seen in other risk-off periods this year and inflows have since... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update A new high for China green exports despite EV tariffs China’s electric vehicle exports rose strongly in July despite EU tariffs coming into force. This, alongside the continued surge in battery exports, lifted our measure of China’s green export volumes... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will the recent wave of EM protests have? The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. To... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Reforms on the agenda in the Gulf, Morocco’s budget Reports this week suggest that Kuwait’s government will pursue public finance reforms to diversify revenues away from oil, but the reported measures appear to be small in the grand scheme of things... 15th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Structural boost outweighing cyclical drag on exports EM goods export growth has accelerated over the past year despite a slowdown in economic growth in DMs. We think this is being driven by three structural factors: Chinese overcapacity, the AI... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall... 14th August 2024 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s tourism sector hit hard by spillovers of war Jordan’s economy has been among the hardest hit from the indirect spillovers of the war in Gaza. While severe balance of payments of strains are likely to be avoided, GDP growth will suffer as the key... 14th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Shipping costs still elevated, but no longer rising Container shipping costs have fallen back slightly in the past few weeks. And while the potential for further shipping disruptions makes the outlook for shipping costs highly uncertain, as things... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The global market turmoil and the impact on MENA Financial markets in the Middle East weren’t spared from the global sell-off earlier in the week. There could be a macro impact on the Gulf economies through the fall in oil prices, either via lower... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much damage would Trump tariffs do to Europe? Several organisations have estimated that a universal 10% tariff on US imports, as proposed by Donald Trump, would reduce euro-zone GDP by at least 1%. We think the hit would be much less than 0.5%. 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
