Japan Economic Outlook BoJ still facing no inflation pressure The Omicron surge will cause a renewed fall in consumer spending this quarter. But we still expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year. And while Omicron and any... 12th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales/External Trade (Nov. 2021) November’s data support our view that GDP will surpass its pre-delta level in Q4. But while the strength in retail sales is set to fade in the months ahead as Omicron weighs on consumption, the likely... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Industry momentum strong going into 2022 Manufacturing PMIs and timely trade data reveal that Asia’s export-focussed industry gained momentum at the turn of the year. While the Omicron variant presents a key threat to the outlook, it is... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Emerging virus waves clouding recoveries beyond SA Much attention has been devoted to the Omicron-fuelled fourth COVID-19 wave ripping through South Africa but cases have picked up elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with especially sharp rises... 16th December 2021 · 12 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Nov. 2021) The jump in exports in November suggests that most supply chain constraints in the automobile sector had already eased last month. We think that exports will remain strong over the coming months as... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Nov.) Exports and imports beat expectations last month thanks to stronger demand and easing semiconductor shortages. In the near-term, the emergence of the Omicron variant is likely to support demand for... 7th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Debt sustainability in Zambia: mission impossible? Zambia’s new administration has made encouraging noises about restoring macroeconomic stability and addressing the country’s public debt problem. But it will be a tall order to secure a large... 2nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct. 2021) While it’s early days, the October trade figures suggest that net trade will turn into a drag on GDP growth yet again as imports rebound after the end of lockdowns. 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Nov.) Korean export values surged to record highs in November helped by temporary factors but also strong underlying growth. Exports should remain elevated for at least the next few months, helped by a... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron shines spotlight on low vaccine coverage The emergence of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 reinforces the need to boost vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa from current low levels. Most countries have administered at least one vaccine dose... 30th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack MENA and the Omicron risks The Middle East and North African economies are potentially among the most vulnerable to the fallout from the Omicron strain of COVID-19. The North African economies as well as Lebanon and Jordan have... 30th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The impact of Omicron on EM trade If the new Omicron variant leads to tighter containment measures across the world, that would probably prop up demand for pandemic-related goods to the benefit of Asian exporters. Meanwhile, oil... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron fears stall plans to reopen borders Amid all the uncertainty caused by the arrival of Omicron, one thing we can say with some conviction is that the new variant is further bad news for the region’s beleaguered tourism industry. Up until... 29th November 2021 · 15 mins read
