Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Current account set for largest surplus since 2006 The surge in commodity prices means that, after ending last year in deficit, the current account is set to move into a surplus of around 1.5% of GDP in the first half of this year. 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Why Argentina’s IMF deal is on shaky ground Argentina’s government reached a fresh IMF deal which, assuming it passes through Congress, will lead to a gradual shift towards more market-friendly policies. However, many of the economic... 8th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Trade volumes remained strong last month but are likely to soften over the coming quarters as China’s import-intensive construction sector cools further and rising inflation dampens demand for... 7th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Oil rally to help Colombia’s twin deficits The recent surge in oil prices means that Colombia’s twin current account and budget deficits are unlikely to be a major concern over the next couple of quarters. However, it will still require a... 3rd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Feb.) February Manufacturing PMIs and Korean trade data show that regional industry had another strong month. This should offset some of the Omicron-related weakness in service sectors this quarter. 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Mixed market reaction in Africa to Russia-Ukraine war Elevated commodity prices on the back of the Russia-Ukraine crisis will almost certainly add to inflationary pressures across Sub-Saharan Africa. High prices for energy, metals and agricultural... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows no major macro concern Net portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have picked up over recent weeks as the growing prospects of war between Ukraine and Russia and tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 23rd February 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Post-booster bounce in the spring Services spending jumped to only 3% below its pre-virus level in Q4 2021 despite having begun the quarter on a weak footing with curfews still in place for bars and restaurants across many regions in... 21st February 2022 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jan. 2022) Exports were broadly unchanged in January despite Omicron surges at home and abroad. We think they’ll rebound further this year as external demand for capital goods rises further and motor vehicle... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High oil prices more harm than good for Lat Am Persistently high oil prices would bode ill for current account positions in much of Latin America, adding to the existing vulnerabilities in Chile. It would also keep inflation elevated, leading to... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities Ukraine’s economy as a whole is in a better position to weather significant capital flight and sharp falls in the hryvnia than at any point in the past decade. But even so, there are key pockets of... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
