Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains still a risk despite devaluation The war in Ukraine has compounded strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and prompted officials to devalue the pound. The key risk now is that the authorities revert to heavily managing the nominal... 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Apr.) Goods trade softened further last month. Virus disruptions continued to take a toll but the main headwind to exports is weakening foreign demand. 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar. 2022) The rise in the trade balance in March won’t be enough to prevent trade from being a significant drag on growth in Q1. In the months ahead higher export prices due to the war in Ukraine should lift... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Apr.) Regional Manufacturing PMIs point to a further worsening of industry conditions, chiming with Korean trade data which suggest a major softening of external demand. Both reinforce the view that... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Tightening cycles to be gradual Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy... 29th April 2022 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Pockets of public debt vulnerability Tighter global monetary conditions and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused public debt problems to worsen in several emerging markets, and the MENA region is not immune to this. Within the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
India Chart Pack Monetary conditions tighten The key policy development this month was the introduction of a new Standing Deposit Facility, through which the RBI will drain excess banking sector liquidity. The SDF now provides the floor for the... 28th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal positions largely going from worse to bad Fiscal positions across Sub-Saharan Africa have been a persistent source of concern since the onset of the pandemic – and in some cases, even before. And the commodity price moves resulting from the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New headwinds emerge Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be... 28th April 2022 · 35 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Paying the price of high inflation We have revised our forecast for world growth this year to further below the consensus to reflect the growing ill effects of high inflation. While inflation should ease as the year goes on, the drag... 27th April 2022 · 47 mins read
China Economic Outlook No quick fix this time China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy... 26th April 2022 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s current account deficit is a growing risk Spillovers from the war in Ukraine are likely to cause Turkey’s current account deficit to widen to more than 4% of GDP this year. In the recent past, deficits of this scale have tended to precede... 25th April 2022 · 4 mins read
