Europe Economic Outlook Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The euro-zone looks on course to fall into a mild recession in the coming quarters. Real incomes are falling, business sentiment has plummeted and growth in the region’s export markets is slowing... 14th July 2022 · 29 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tough times ahead as Pakistan agrees IMF deal The resumption of the loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. But the cuts to government spending that the... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Product shortages ease as activity weakens Recent data suggest that global economic activity was even weaker than we initially thought in Q2, with GDP probably contracting in several major economies including the euro-zone, UK and China. The... 13th July 2022 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Import volumes fell to a three-year low last month, pointing to continued weakness in China’s construction sector. Exports rebounded strongly as shipping bottlenecks eased. But we think this may be... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs picked up over the past month and are likely to persist over the rest of the year. That’s a particular threat to those EMs whose current account deficits have widened or are... 12th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro nears parity, energy effects erase German surplus The depreciation in the euro to its lowest level in almost two decades against the dollar this week in large part reflects investors’ view that the ECB will tighten less aggressively than the Fed. The... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Reshoring production bodes ill for profits The surge in firms’ capital spendings plan for the fiscal year that started in April to around a record high could be due to firms finally undertaking projects that have been held back by supply... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook More frontloading to come Strong economic growth and surging inflation have prompted the RBI to kick-start its hiking cycle and we think the central bank will continue to frontload policy tightening. In all, we think the repo... 7th July 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (May 2022) The surge in the trade surplus in May suggests that net exports provided an even bigger boost to Q2 GDP growth than we had anticipated. But that boost should fade as the border reopening lifts outward... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana and the IMF: big hurdles to debt sustainability The decision by Ghana’s government to turn to the IMF will help to restore some calm among investors over the country’s poor public finances. But a very large fiscal squeeze is needed to restore debt... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE current accounts now in worrying territory Surging global commodity prices have hit Central and Eastern European economies like a tsunami in recent months, causing a severe terms of trade shock and current account deficits to blow out. These... 6th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May 22) The slowdown in wage growth in May was entirely due to volatile bonus payments. Nonetheless, we don’t expect wages to grow fast enough for the Bank of Japan to start tightening policy anytime soon. 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hawkish shift creates difficult environment for Africa The hawkish turn by DM central banks over the past month has further soured investor risk appetite, and capital inflows into African economies are likely to have slowed. Countries with large external... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Tightening cycles still have some way to go Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence... 29th June 2022 · 13 mins read
