Global Trade Monitor World trade bearing the brunt of weak demand As of January, world trade had already fallen by more than 5% from its peak in September. And despite a slight boost from reopening in China, several leading indicators still point to further falls in... 11th April 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly New FTP will fall short of lofty ambitions The government's new Foreign Trade Policy is underpinned by ambitions to boost exports to US$2trn by FY29/30 and increase the use of the rupee settlement mechanism, both of which are tough tasks... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak CEE activity data, Romania’s FX reserves surge The batch of hard activity data and surveys released across Central Europe this week were relatively weak and suggest that GDP contracted in most countries again in Q1. Downside risks to Q2 have also... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ cuts and the Gulf, Saudi labour, Morocco-IMF The surprise voluntary oil output cut by OPEC+ will directly shave 1-2%-pts off GDP growth in the region’s members this year, which has prompted us to revise down our 2023 GDP growth forecasts. That... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb. 2023) The widening of the trade surplus in February largely reflects the fact that imports of goods and services fell at a much faster rate than exports. Therefore, even though net trade will make a... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Feb. 2023) 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both exports and imports in February add to the signs that economic growth is faltering. Although strong gains in January mean that both are still likely to have risen over the... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Feb.) Exports are still on track to rise this quarter, despite declining in February specifically, but the renewed deterioration in the survey-based export indicators points to weakness in the second... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Drought to push Argentina’s economy into deep recession The historic drought afflicting Argentina will cause a steeper contraction in GDP than most expect this year and intensify balance of payments strains by reducing export earnings to the tune of 2-3%... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly External demand weakness has further to run Firms expect the recent weakness in external demand to last another quarter at least, according to the BoJ’s latest Tankan survey. That should drag on business investment as well and cause the economy... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities likely to ease The widening in India’s current account deficit last year, to 2.4% of GDP, was not as significant as many had feared in the context of the surge in commodity prices. Looking ahead, we think the... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The OPEC+ oil cuts and what they mean for MENA The surprise announcement of a further 1.66mn bpd cut to oil output by OPEC+ will reduce GDP growth mechanically in the Gulf economies by around 1-2%-pts this year, although the corresponding rise in... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Uneven consumer recovery slowing down Consumer spending jumped during the first two months of the year as virus disruptions faded. The March retail sales data won’t be published for another couple of weeks. But the data we have so far... 3rd April 2023 · 11 mins read
