International Trade & Balance of Payments

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Policymakers on alert as EM currencies tumble

The ramping up of the US Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has turbocharged the dollar’s appreciation against EM currencies, with most falling by 2-6% against the greenback since the start of the month...

27th September 2022 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

External strains building in North Africa

The Gulf countries have benefitted enormously from higher energy prices and will run large current account surpluses. But external positions have deteriorated in other parts of the region. That...

27th September 2022 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

Capital inflows into EMs have dropped sharply over the past few weeks as the US dollar has been on a tear. External financing is likely to remain challenging in this environment, posing a threat to...

23rd September 2022 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long

The 1.7% q/q rise in New Zealand’s production GDP and the 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s GDP in Q2 were among the strongest increases among major advanced economies. (See Chart 1.) However, GDP growth...

22nd September 2022 11 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: counting the cost of a strong dollar

The strong dollar environment is particularly worrying for those EMs with large dollar debts, including parts of Latin America, Turkey and many frontier markets. But it’s also a concern for countries...

20th September 2022 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria oil output, Kenya subsidies, Zambia debt

The fall in Nigeria’s oil production in August to a 50-year low, coming alongside the recent drop back in oil prices, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy’s prospects. Elsewhere, Kenya’s...

16th September 2022 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE inflation divergence, Turkey’s BoP puzzle

The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will...

16th September 2022 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Rupee channel could help Russian oil flow

Indian imports from Russia have quadrupled since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, reflecting both higher energy prices and a surge in volumes. So long as Russia’s energy sector is not specifically...

16th September 2022 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (Aug. 2022)

15th September 2022 2 mins read

Japan Data Response

Japan External Trade (Aug. 2022)

Japan’s trade deficit widened to yet another record high in August, but the peak shouldn’t be far away now. Commodity prices continue to ease, and the yen should end the year stronger than its current...

15th September 2022 2 mins read

UK Data Response

GDP & International Trade (Jul.)

The disappointingly small rebound in real GDP in July suggests that the economy has little momentum and is probably already in recession. The government’s utility price freeze is unlikely to change...

12th September 2022 4 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Pound to fall further, but it’s not an EM currency

Although the slump in the pound to $1.14 earlier this week took it to its lowest level since 1985, the suggestions that it is turning into an emerging market currency are misplaced. The key difference...

9th September 2022 10 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Jul. 2022)

The record fall in Australia’s trade balance partly reflects bad weather that held back coal exports, but the recent fall in the iron ore price hasn’t fully fed through so export values will continue...

8th September 2022 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia International Trade (July 2022)

8th September 2022 2 mins read

US Data Response

International Trade (Jul.)

The trade deficit narrowed to a nine-month low of $70.7bn in July, from $80.9bn, driven by a sizeable drop back in consumer goods imports, although almost half that decline was due to lower imports of...

7th September 2022 2 mins read

Canada Data Response

International Trade (Jul.)

Export volumes rose by more than we expected in July but, with the fall in import volumes painting a weak picture of domestic demand, it still looks like GDP growth will slow sharply this quarter.

7th September 2022 3 mins read