Latin America Economics Weekly The dust settles in Brazil, Petro hits at BanRep The stronger-than-expected performance of Jair Bolsonaro and his right-wing allies in Brazil’s election last Sunday has buoyed the country’s financial markets by reducing the risk of a dramatic shift... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves appears to be due to valuation effects rather than direct intervention in the FX market. But we still think the PBOC will try, and may well succeed, in... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and financial flows The trend towards ever more “financial globalisation” has already decelerated and will probably slow further as the global economy fractures and policymakers favour resilience over efficiency. While a... 6th October 2022 · 25 mins read
CE Spotlight The impact of fracturing on trade and supply chains Fracturing will not be felt as globalisation in reverse – apart from a few categories of goods deemed politically sensitive or strategically important, most trade between the US and China-aligned... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worrying is the fall in EMs’ FX reserves? While large-scale intervention to stem currency weakness has led to falls in central banks’ foreign exchange reserves, FX reserve coverage is only really low in a handful of EMs including Egypt... 6th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug. 2022) The further fall in the trade surplus in August largely reflects a plunge in export prices and net trade should still provide a small boost to Q3 GDP. But with commodity prices now clearly down from... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The further sharp decline in the trade deficit to $67.4bn in August, from $70.5bn, means that net exports provided a big boost to third-quarter GDP growth. But the twin drags from the surging dollar... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The drop in export volumes in August and the large downward revision to the trade surplus in July present downside risks to our already-weak estimate for third-quarter GDP growth of 0.8% annualised. 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug.) & ADP Employment (Sep.) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack PBOC’s proxies ready to fight It has been five years since the People’s Bank last dipped into its own foreign exchange reserves on a significant scale to support the currency. Since then, it is widely believed that the exchange... 3rd October 2022 · 13 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy weak despite export strength The revised GDP data released this week confirm the economy was already struggling ahead of the more recent tightening in financial conditions. Although surging exports appear to have driven a strong... 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate easing, ominous signs for exporters Officials are giving banks more room to lower mortgage rates by relaxing regulatory controls. We doubt this will be sufficient to put a floor under home sales. But alongside efforts to prop up the... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Current account deficit to widen further India’s current account recorded its largest deficit in three years in Q2 and it will remain wide by recent standards over the coming quarters, which will keep the rupee on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade to fall outright amid global recession While world trade was resilient in the first half of this year, there is growing evidence that it has since weakened, and we suspect that it will contract outright in 2023 as the world economy falls... 28th September 2022 · 4 mins read
