Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising... 21st November 2022 · 40 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Oct. 2022) The trade deficit widened but stayed below the record high in August, but with the yen strengthening significantly in recent weeks, the deficit should narrow later this quarter. 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s external position better than rest of N. Africa Morocco has been hit hard by the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and, while its external strains aren’t anywhere near as sever as those in Egypt and Tunisia, we think the authorities will need to... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Baby steps at G20 as fracturing theme dominates This week’s G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, has so far exceeded low expectations. There is broad condemnation of the war in Ukraine and bilateral talks between China and the US seem to have been... 15th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s current account risks continue to mount Romania’s current account deficit, which is among the largest in the EM world, has continued to widen this year and now exceeds 9% of GDP. It is reassuring that much of the deficit is currently being... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and Tunisia heading down different paths The recent IMF deals reached by governments in Egypt and Tunisia are positive developments and will help ease balance of payments strains in both countries. Egypt has already made progress with... 9th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Decline in EM exports has further to run Our seasonally-adjusted measure of aggregate EM goods exports recorded a decline in dollar terms in September and leading indicators point to further falls over the rest of the year. And with... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Higher oil imports not a sign of strong China demand China’s latest trade figures point to weak commodity demand both domestically and globally. Given that we don’t expect the slowdown in global economic growth to trough until early next year, we think... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s current account deficit to widen Mexico’s current account deficit is likely to widen over the coming quarters and, while it will remain modest compared with other parts of Latin America, we expect the peso to come under pressure. 7th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Monetary policy will be loosened next year With inflation surprising to the upside in Q3, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to revise up its near-term forecasts for inflation in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. What’s more, the... 7th November 2022 · 12 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Oct.) China’s export volumes dropped back sharply in October, due to a deterioration in global economic conditions and a reversal in pandemic-related demand. We expect exports to weaken further over the... 7th November 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Electronics exports are booming India’s exports of electronics remain small, but they have doubled in value over the past couple of years. This is further evidence of a shift into areas of manufacturing that have the potential to... 4th November 2022 · 5 mins read
