Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: outlook remains fragile despite oil price boost The squeeze on Russia’s budget and current account positions has eased over the second half of this year, largely thanks to a rise in oil prices. Higher energy revenues next year should help to limit... 15th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya default risks fall, Dangote oil refinery ramps-up Kenya’s partial payment of its $2bn Eurobond will improve its chances of avoiding a sovereign default next year. Extra IMF funds and an improved balance of payment position will also help, but... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we present our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. Government debt is still above pre-pandemic levels and most economies we cover... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chinese exporters gain market share by slashing prices Export values have been contracting year-on-year for six months. But that’s almost entirely due to price effects. Export volumes have recently risen to record levels, with broad-based price cuts... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi FDI revisions, Egypt-IMF deal, October’s PMIs Saudi Arabia’s revised foreign direct investment data paint a far rosier picture than previously, but there is still work to be done to meet the punchy targets of Vision 2030. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 9th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s currency pegs? Persistent balance of payments strains brought pressure on some of the region’s non-oil producing countries who employ fixed exchange rate regimes. FX reserves have been depleted to support currencies... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: That Xi-Biden meet in context – How fracturing is reshaping the global outlook 1700139600 The splintering of the world economy into competing US and China-aligned blocs is dominating the macro and financial and commodities markets outlook.
Latin America Economics Update Will a “Dead Cow” become Argentina’s life saver? The Vaca Muerta shale formation will alleviate some of the pressure on Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position by substantially reducing the country’s gas import bill and raising oil export... 8th November 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The year-on-year contraction in export values deepened last month. But this was mainly due to lower export prices. Export volumes were little changed after hitting a record high in September. We doubt... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA, EU-China influence, MTBPS Even as African officials push for an extension of a key US-Africa trade agreement, it was announced this week that Uganda will lose duty-free access to the US from next year in response to the... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly The renminbi’s rise in China’s global transactions For the first time, over half of China’s global transactions are being settled in renminbi. Most of this renminbi isn’t travelling far – the bulk of settlement is being driven by financial flows with... 3rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recession still likely in Australia Timely data suggest that both goods and services consumption gained traction last quarter. Therefore, even with a huge drag on growth from net trade, it increasingly appears that the economy managed... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
