Chief Economist's Note China’s slowdown is a problem for Tesla and Zambia. Less so for global growth. In August 2015, a botched change to the way that Beijing managed the renminbi triggered global panic amid worries that a hard landing in China would take the world economy down with it. Crisis was... 21st August 2023
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s macro pressures, external conditions tighten Macroeconomic stability risks started to crystallise in Russia this week as the ruble slumped and the central bank intervened with an emergency rate hike. Policymakers are considering further measures... 18th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t rush to tighten policy With the economy seemingly running hot and underlying inflation still accelerating, the case for tighter monetary policy looks increasingly compelling. However, we still expect the Bank of Japan to... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current EM turmoil not a sign of widespread risks The crises unfolding in Argentina, Russia, as well as in China’s property sector, this week may rumble on for some time. And in the case of China’s property downturn, there are likely to be spillovers... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fall in energy imports has further to run Most of the plunge in import volumes last quarter reflects lower energy imports. With the Ukraine war rekindling concerns about energy security and energy prices remaining stubbornly high, import... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s recession deepens Oil output cuts fuelled Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the drag from the oil sector appears to have intensified more recently. Taking together with signs that activity... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Argentina Devaluation and Interest Rate Hike The news just out that Argentina has devalued the peso by around 20% against the dollar (to 350/$) and hiked the policy interest rate by 21%-pts to 118% underscores that the economy is lurching... 14th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Data still consistent with soft(ish) landing Although export volumes fell for the second month running in June, the strength of imports suggests that domestic demand is holding up and the Bank of Canada will be pleased to see that import prices... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export pullback understated, foreign travel to pick up The export data published by China’s customs bureau appear to have become less reliable recently and subject to unusually large revisions. Alternative indicators suggest that the true level of exports... 11th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco profit slump, Egypt back on the orthodox train? The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as... 10th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2023) After a strong run since April, inflows into EM bond and equity markets have softened markedly in the past few weeks. Inflows into India, in particular, have weakened. Turkey continues to see sizeable... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kwanza slump adds to clouds over Angola’s outlook Angola’s recent 40% devaluation of the kwanza will add to inflation pressures and prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy aggressively, all of which will weigh on near-term growth. The... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
