Global Economics Update G20 action on trade finance could be the one big positive This week’s London G20 summit is in danger of over-promising and under-delivering. The chances of an additional global fiscal stimulus look remote and there is no sign of agreement on the best ways to... 30th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Japan still a surplus country? We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan still a surplus country? We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Time to tear up the growth model? While we expect Emerging Europe to suffer a much more severe recession than most other analysts, talk that its growth model is fundamentally broken seems premature. We think that the region could... 4th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A tiny silver lining in Japan's trade data January’s data all but guarantee that collapsing exports will make another large negative contribution to Japan’s GDP in the first quarter. However, imports have also started to drop back, which means... 25th February 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A tiny silver lining in Japan’s trade data January’s data all but guarantee that collapsing exports will make another large negative contribution to Japan’s GDP in the first quarter. However, imports have also started to drop back, which means... 25th February 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A chill wind blows east We expect the Emerging European economy to shrink by 3% this year, with no meaningful recovery until 2011. What’s more, further IMF bailouts look likely over the coming months as a number of the... 29th January 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Chinese exports fall off a cliff Local sources suggest that Chinese exports have experienced a sudden collapse. This may explain last week’s inter-day weakness in the renminbi. But the case for a sustained depreciation is still poor. 8th December 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese exports fall off a cliff Local sources suggest that Chinese exports have experienced a sudden collapse. This may explain last week’s inter-day weakness in the renminbi. But the case for a sustained depreciation is still poor. 8th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update External sector leading Italy into a deep recession Recent data on the Italian external sector has painted a worrying picture of the outlook for exporters. With the domestic economy in no position to pick up the slack, we think that the consensus view... 18th November 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus ‘Super Deficit’ countries in recession in 2009 Huge current account deficits across Emerging Europe mean that Hungary and Ukraine are unlikely to be the only countries in the region to call on the IMF for emergency funding. As a period of painful... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the global slowdown mean for Japan? Japan’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit of ¥208 billion in August reported earlier in the week – the first monthly deficit since the early 1980s – has increased concerns about the fallout from the... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What does the global slowdown mean for Japan? Japan’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit of ¥208 billion in August reported earlier in the week – the first monthly deficit since the early 1980s – has increased concerns about the fallout from the... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
