China Economics Update More signs that Asia’s recovery is taking its time The slight fall in China’s official PMI in May is actually fairly encouraging since the index usually falls by much more at this time of year. But Asia’s recovery is only gaining ground slowly, as... 1st June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the lower pound already helping? On the face of it, the plummeting level of UK exports suggests that the sharp drop in the sterling exchange rate over the last year or two has done nothing to cushion the UK’s external sector from the... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan's trade data show Q2 off to a flying start The jump in Japanese export volumes in April gets the second quarter off to a flying start. Combined with the improvement in the forward-looking survey data it looks increasingly likely that GDP will... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s trade data show Q2 off to a flying start The jump in Japanese export volumes in April gets the second quarter off to a flying start. Combined with the improvement in the forward-looking survey data it looks increasingly likely that GDP will... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the UK make the most of the lower pound? Concerns have been expressed that the UK’s export-dependent sectors, most notably manufacturing, no longer have the key ingredients necessary to make the most of the boost to their competitiveness... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates unlikely to fall much further Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Asian recovery still needs deeper roots There was much to cheer in China’s latest PMI and April’s export data from Korea. But they are consistent with stabilisation rather than either economy springing rapidly back to life. 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Emerging Markets - another disaster? Both Latin America and Emerging Europe will enter deep recessions this year and, in the absence of a strong global recovery, the pain is likely to extend well into 2010. But whereas Latin America has... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Trade data suggest Japan's recovery to begin in Q2 Today’s March trade figures allow us to firm up our estimates for Japanese GDP in the first quarter and have an educated guess (with only a little imagination) at the second quarter too. The economy... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trade data suggest Japan’s recovery to begin in Q2 Today’s March trade figures allow us to firm up our estimates for Japanese GDP in the first quarter and have an educated guess (with only a little imagination) at the second quarter too. The economy... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 delivers (in part) on trade finance The London Summit failed to break any new ground on a global fiscal stimulus or support for the financial sector, but it has at least promised generous increases in funding for the IMF and additional... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable are emerging markets to a rise in protectionism? We expect world trade to recover over the next year or so. But if protectionist pressures grow, emerging markets will be hit hard, with those in Eastern Europe likely to suffer the most. 1st April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How vulnerable are emerging markets to a rise in protectionism? We expect world trade to recover over the next year or so. But if protectionist pressures grow, emerging markets will be hit hard, with those in Eastern Europe likely to suffer the most. 1st April 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 action on trade finance could be the one big positive This week’s London G20 summit is in danger of over-promising and under-delivering. The chances of an additional global fiscal stimulus look remote and there is no sign of agreement on the best ways to... 30th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Japan still a surplus country? We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
