Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cut, another delay to Egypt’s IMF review? Saudi Arabia announced it will roll over its additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut until the end of the year, which we think will push the economy into a sharp contraction over the second half... 7th September 2023 · 9 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Aug.) China’s export values continued to contract in August but this mostly reflects lower prices. Export volumes continued to hold up well and are still above their pre-pandemic trend. We doubt this... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jul. 2023) 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (July) Net external trade is on track to provide a modest positive contribution to third-quarter GDP growth, despite the widening in the monthly trade deficit to $65.0bn in July, from $63.7bn. 6th September 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external imbalances starting to unwind Having ballooned during the post-pandemic recovery, Colombia’s current account deficit has started to narrow and should continue to do so in the coming quarters. This, alongside the shift in financing... 5th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the odd one out We no longer expect Japan’s economy to enter a recession. However, with real household incomes set to fall until the end of this year, domestic demand growth will remain sluggish. Accordingly, we... 4th September 2023 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update Further weakness in store for world trade Not only did global goods trade fall in June, but timelier trade and survey data for July and August point to further declines. Meanwhile, with the lagged impact of high interest rates likely to weigh... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA drawdown, Saudi real estate, Egypt industry plans The drop in the Saudi central bank’s foreign assets to a 14-year low in July caused some concern this week, but we suspect this reflects funds being recycled to the Public Investment Fund rather than... 31st August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of a downward spiral. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth (outside the pandemic) since 2016 this year... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal issues, Ethiopia finance, Kenya debt Growing concerns about the direction of South Africa’s public finances have caused the yield curve to steepen as risk premia have risen, a trend that may continue as next year’s election approaches... 25th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly BRICS Summit, Morocco’s policymaking Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt were among six countries to be invited to join the BRICS bloc, which could solidify the shift in their geopolitical alignment towards a China-led bloc . This could... 24th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s slow tourism recovery sustains external strains Sub-Saharan Africa’s tourism industry has recovered slowly from the pandemic, albeit with significant variation in performance across the continent. Signs that the tourism outlook is weakening risk... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil's and Mexico's economies are likely to outperform others in the region in 2023, but... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Oil output cuts are driving a sharp slowdown in economic growth across the Gulf. The hit to volumes will more than offset the rebound in oil prices but, for now at least, fiscal policy is being kept... 21st August 2023 · 1 min read
