Europe Data Response E-Z Trade Balance (Dec.) & Spanish GDP (Q4) December’s healthy rise in euro-zone exports suggests that exporters are continuing to cope with the strong euro. But the cost has been a sharp squeeze in firms’ margins. This casts doubts on whether... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish current account concerns start to build After shrinking markedly from the levels seen in mid-2008, Turkey’s current account deficit has begun to widen once again. While the deficit has not yet reached danger levels, the bigger picture is... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Dec.) & BRC Retail Sales (Jan.) The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How quickly will world trade recover? Today’s CPB Trade Monitor shows that the recovery in global trade continued at a rapid pace in November. Strong near-term GDP gains should continue to support trade, but as the world economy slows... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Bal. (Nov.) & Final CPI (Dec.) November’s fall in euro-zone exports could signal that the strong euro is beginning to take its toll on exporters. Nonetheless, in Q4 at least, the external sector is likely to have continued to... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How competitive is Emerging Europe? While the worst of the recession in Emerging Europe has passed, a fundamental lack of competitiveness will hold back the recovery in much of the region. Poland and Turkey stand out as two notable... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Nov.) & BRC Retail Sales (Dec.) The UK trade figures continued to disappoint in November, with the lower pound still having little visible positive effect. But at least consumers are still proving surprisingly happy to keep spending... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery remains on track Today’s CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade continues to recover, although the gain in October was inevitably less spectacular than the surge in September. We expect that world trade will... 24th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still little evidence of a sterling boost As highlighted by this week’s dismal trade figures, evidence of a boost from the lower level of sterling is conspicuous by its absence. There remain few signs that the drop in the pound is either... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Stronger demand continues to lift world trade World trade volumes are now rising almost as sharply as they fell at the end of last year. The structure of trade also appears to have suffered little lasting damage from the financial crisis... 30th November 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Annual growth of exports positive again by January The continued recovery in Japanese exports in October supports our view that GDP growth will not slow as much in the fourth quarter as most seem to expect. However, a sharp fall in imports last month... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s commodity imports slow Despite further evidence of economic strength, China’s monthly data for October suggested that commodity stockpiling is waning. Lending growth declined more than expected, but credit policy is set to... 11th November 2009 · 1 min read
