Global Economics Update World trade recovery starting to lose momentum The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade fell back in April, albeit after a large gain in March. We expect the pace of recovery to slow more markedly later this year and in 2011 as the... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A closer look at May’s trade data May’s external trade data revealed two interesting developments. The first is a growing divergence between trends in the value of exports compared to the volume, probably a consequence of the stronger... 24th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan is struggling to retain IMF support The delay in implementing a new value added tax has soured relations between Pakistan and the IMF and means that the capital inflow needed to shore up the balance of payments will be slow in coming... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jun.), E-Z Trade (Apr.) & Employment (Q1) June’s drop in German ZEW investor confidence is a worrying sign that fears about peripheral debt are damaging sentiment towards core euro-zone economies too. 15th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response External Trade (May) Today’s confirmation that exports surged in China last month makes an early move on restarting currency reform more likely and should also dampen fears that the economy is heading into an abrupt... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Apr.) April’s trade figures suggested that the external sector is still in no position to offset the effects of the fiscal squeeze that is now almost upon us. 9th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production/Trade & French Trade (Apr.) April’s rise in German industrial production provides hope that the recovery in the wider economy is gaining momentum. But with fiscal policy in Germany and elsewhere set to be tightened dramatically... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade growth set to slow into 2011 The latest CPB data suggest that global merchandise trade climbed at a fast pace in March. We have recently upgraded our global GDP forecasts and accordingly have lifted our world trade projections... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Japan’s exports will continue to rebound for several quarters yet, despite the problems in Europe and the surge in the yen. A significant deterioration is unlikely until 2011, by when we expect the... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May), EZ CPI (Apr.) & Trade (Mar.) May’s renewed decline in the ZEW index suggests that investors are still very worried about the effect of the periphery’s problems on the German economy. 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Mar.) March’s trade figures suggested that, after a period of weather-induced volatility, the underlying trend in net trade remains disappointingly weak. It remains hard to see what part of the economy is... 13th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Germany Trade/France & Italy Industrial Production (Mar.) The latest data from the three main economies suggest that the region ended Q1 on a high note. But while the economic recovery may gain momentum in the short term, a prolonged period of fiscal... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response External Trade (Apr.) China’s trade surplus reappeared in April and looks set to rise over the rest of the year. Against this backdrop, worries about the fallout from the Greek debt crisis are unlikely to delay a return to... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Mar.) March’s surge in German industrial production confirms that the euro-zone’s largest economy is shaking off troubles in the periphery for now. But weather-related weakness earlier this year suggests... 7th May 2010 · 1 min read
